Football · Wales Championship South · 31/08, 15:30

Prediction: Afan Lido vs Ynyshir Albions

Team pages: Afan Lido · Ynyshir Albions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Afan Lido1.45

Ynyshir Albions1.45

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Afan Lido Draw Ynyshir Albions

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Afan Lido 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWLWL

Ynyshir Albions 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDWDLW

Head-to-head

Afan Lido 2–2 Ynyshir Albions (4 last)

Afan Lido0-2Ynyshir Albions
Ynyshir Albions1-2Afan Lido
Ynyshir Albions2-1Afan Lido
Afan Lido1-0Ynyshir Albions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Afan Lido 1490 · Ynyshir Albions 1504

	Afan Lido	Draw	Ynyshir Albions
Our model	36%	27%	36%
Market	38%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Afan Lido	Ynyshir Albions
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:52 +13’	2.40	3.60	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Afan Lido 2–0–2 Ynyshir Albions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/12/25 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	0-2 HT 0-1	Ynyshir Albions
06/09/25 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	1-2 HT 1-1	Afan Lido
22/04/23 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	2-1	Afan Lido
06/12/22 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	1-0 HT 0-0	Ynyshir Albions

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	4	4	0	0	14	1	12
2	Pontypridd Utd	4	4	0	0	12	6	12
3	Treowen Stars	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
4	Carmarthen	4	3	0	1	11	9	9
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
6	Aberystwyth	3	2	0	1	11	5	6
7	Newport City FC	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
8	Afan Lido	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Ynyshir Albions	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
11	Caerau Ely	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4
13	Pontardawe Town	4	1	0	3	5	8	3
14	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Llanelli Town	4	0	1	3	4	12	1
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Afan Lido	Ynyshir Albions
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-5 L	2-2 D
Carmarthen	1-3 L	0-0 D
Aberystwyth	2-5 L	0-0 D
Cardiff Draconians	1-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ynyshir Albions (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Afan Lido

WWWWLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
21/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
14/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	5-0	4	7	W
01/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	1-1	2-5	4	8	L
18/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
03/04	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
28/03	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
20/03	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-1	4-1	3	8	W

Ynyshir Albions

WDLDLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
18/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
28/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
24/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-1	1-4	3	3	L
21/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
14/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Afan Lido vs Ynyshir Albions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Afan Lido win (37%). Probabilities: Afan Lido 37%, draw 26%, Ynyshir Albions 37%.

How many goals are expected in Afan Lido vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Afan Lido 1.45 · Ynyshir Albions 1.45), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Afan Lido vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.