Football · Wales Championship South · 31/08, 15:30
Prediction: Carmarthen vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Team pages: Carmarthen · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.15Total
Carmarthen2.25
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1.9
1X2
Carmarthen
Draw
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Carmarthen
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carmarthen
4–1–1
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
(6 last)
- Trethomas Bluebirds AFC4-5Carmarthen
- Carmarthen1-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
- Carmarthen5-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
- Trethomas Bluebirds AFC3-0Carmarthen
- Carmarthen2-0Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
- Carmarthen2-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carmarthen 1516 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1446
| Carmarthen | Draw | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 21% | 33% |
| Market | 44% | 25% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carmarthen (rating 1516 vs 1446).
- H2H favours Carmarthen: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carmarthen | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.8 | 2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 5.9 | 2.3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carmarthen 4–1–1 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 Wales Championship South | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 4-5 HT 1-2 | Carmarthen |
| 08/11/25 Wales Championship South | Carmarthen | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC |
| 18/10/25 Wales Cup | Carmarthen | 5-1 HT 1-1 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC |
| 28/12/24 Wales Championship South | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Carmarthen |
| 05/10/24 Wales Championship South | Carmarthen | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC |
| 04/09/21 Wales Cup | Carmarthen | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Utd | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Carmarthen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Newport City FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 9 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 11 | Caerau Ely | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 4 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 14 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 15 | Llanelli Town | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carmarthen | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Llanelli Town | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Afan Lido | 3-1 W | 5-2 W |
| Caerau Ely | 4-3 W | 2-4 L |
| Pontypridd Utd | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Baglan Dragons | 7-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Ynyshir Albions | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Cardiff Draconians | 3-2 W | 4-4 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Carmarthen (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carmarthen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 22/08 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 14/08 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 4-3 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 21/03 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 14/03 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
3-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
3-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/08 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 14/08 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
2-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 31/07 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
2-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 20/03 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carmarthen vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carmarthen win (45%). Probabilities: Carmarthen 45%, draw 23%, Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 32%.
How many goals are expected in Carmarthen vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?
The model expects 4.15 goals (Carmarthen 2.25 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1.9), with a 59% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Carmarthen vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.