Football · Wales Championship South · 28/08, 20:45

Prediction: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Afan Lido

Team pages: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC · Afan Lido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1.74

Afan Lido1.72

1X2

38% 24% 37%

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Draw Afan Lido

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDDDLL

Afan Lido 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2–2 Afan Lido (4 last)

Afan Lido1-0Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC3-2Afan Lido
Afan Lido1-0Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC3-2Afan Lido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1446 · Afan Lido 1500

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Draw	Afan Lido
Our model	38%	24%	37%
Market	38%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Afan Lido (rating 1446 vs 1500).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Afan Lido
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.7	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.70

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +5’	2.35	3.70	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2–0–2 Afan Lido

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	1-0 HT 0-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
22/08/25 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	3-2 HT 1-1	Afan Lido
04/04/25 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	1-0 HT 0-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
11/10/24 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	3-2 HT 2-1	Afan Lido

Standings · Wales Championship South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	4	4	0	0	14	1	12
2	Pontypridd Utd	4	4	0	0	12	6	12
3	Treowen Stars	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
4	Carmarthen	4	3	0	1	11	9	9
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
6	Aberystwyth	3	2	0	1	11	5	6
7	Newport City FC	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
8	Afan Lido	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Ynyshir Albions	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
11	Caerau Ely	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4
13	Pontardawe Town	4	1	0	3	5	8	3
14	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Llanelli Town	4	0	1	3	4	12	1
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Afan Lido
Cardiff Draconians	4-4 D	1-4 L
Aberystwyth	0-3 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

WLWDDDDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
14/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	2-2	2-4	6	3	L
07/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
31/07	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
18/04	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
04/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	4	4	D
28/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
20/03	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	4-2	5	5	W
14/03	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
09/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	7	5	W

Afan Lido

LWWWWLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
14/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	5-0	4	7	W
01/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	1-1	2-5	4	8	L
18/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
03/04	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
28/03	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
20/03	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-1	4-1	3	8	W
13/03	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	0	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Afan Lido?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Trethomas Bluebirds AFC win (38%). Probabilities: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 38%, draw 24%, Afan Lido 37%.

How many goals are expected in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Afan Lido?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1.74 · Afan Lido 1.72), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Afan Lido?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.