Football · Wales Championship South · 31/08, 15:30

Prediction: Caerau Ely vs Treowen Stars

Team pages: Caerau Ely · Treowen Stars

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Caerau Ely2.17

Treowen Stars1.6

1X2

50% 22% 28%

Caerau Ely Draw Treowen Stars

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Caerau Ely 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLDWLL

Treowen Stars 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Caerau Ely 2–0 Treowen Stars (2 last)

Caerau Ely3-0Treowen Stars
Treowen Stars0-5Caerau Ely

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caerau Ely 1515 · Treowen Stars 1507

	Caerau Ely	Draw	Treowen Stars
Our model	50%	22%	28%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Caerau Ely: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caerau Ely	Treowen Stars
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	2.3 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:58 +6’	1.80	4.00	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caerau Ely 2–0–0 Treowen Stars

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	3-0 HT 3-0	Treowen Stars
27/09/25 Wales Championship South	Treowen Stars	0-5 HT 0-2	Caerau Ely

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	4	4	0	0	14	1	12
2	Pontypridd Utd	4	4	0	0	12	6	12
3	Treowen Stars	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
4	Carmarthen	4	3	0	1	11	9	9
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
6	Aberystwyth	3	2	0	1	11	5	6
7	Newport City FC	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
8	Afan Lido	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Ynyshir Albions	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
11	Caerau Ely	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4
13	Pontardawe Town	4	1	0	3	5	8	3
14	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Llanelli Town	4	0	1	3	4	12	1
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caerau Ely	Treowen Stars
Baglan Dragons	1-3 L	4-1 W
Carmarthen	3-4 L	4-2 W
Pontypridd Utd	0-0 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Treowen Stars (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caerau Ely

WDWWDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
21/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	1-0	1-5	6	6	L
14/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
07/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	3-4	5	6	L
18/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
04/04	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
28/03	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
21/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	13	1	D
14/03	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	2-0	5-0	2	6	W

Treowen Stars

WWLLLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	4-2	6	0	W
15/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
01/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
18/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	4-1	4	5	W
03/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-6	2	1	L
28/03	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-1	1-5	4	7	L
23/03	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
20/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
17/03	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caerau Ely vs Treowen Stars?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caerau Ely win (50%). Probabilities: Caerau Ely 50%, draw 22%, Treowen Stars 28%.

How many goals are expected in Caerau Ely vs Treowen Stars?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Caerau Ely 2.17 · Treowen Stars 1.6), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Caerau Ely vs Treowen Stars?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.