Football · Wales Championship South · 23/10, 20:30

Prediction: Llanelli Town vs Afan Lido

Team pages: Llanelli Town · Afan Lido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Llanelli Town1.49

Afan Lido2.16

1X2

26% 22% 52%

Llanelli Town Draw Afan Lido

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Llanelli Town 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLLLLL

Afan Lido 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLWDLD

Head-to-head

Llanelli Town 5–1–0 Afan Lido (6 last)

Llanelli Town1-1Afan Lido
Afan Lido0-1Llanelli Town
Llanelli Town3-2Afan Lido
Afan Lido0-3Llanelli Town
Afan Lido0-1Llanelli Town
Llanelli Town3-1Afan Lido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Llanelli Town 1379 · Afan Lido 1470

	Llanelli Town	Draw	Afan Lido
Our model	26%	22%	52%
Market	26%	22%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Afan Lido (rating 1379 vs 1470).
H2H favours Llanelli Town: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Llanelli Town	Afan Lido
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.9	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/0/70%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.4 / 3	1.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.00

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +4’	3.50	4.00	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Llanelli Town 5–1–0 Afan Lido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/25 Wales Championship South	Llanelli Town	1-1 HT 0-0	Afan Lido
10/01/25 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	0-1 HT 0-0	Llanelli Town
05/01/24 Wales Championship South	Llanelli Town	3-2 HT 1-1	Afan Lido
17/11/23 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	0-3 HT 0-2	Llanelli Town
03/03/23 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	0-1 HT 0-0	Llanelli Town
29/07/22 Wales Championship South	Llanelli Town	3-1 HT 1-1	Afan Lido

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	10	6	2	2	24	17	20
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Carmarthen	10	4	3	3	22	21	15
8	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	10	3	4	3	20	18	13
9	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
10	Afan Lido	11	3	3	5	18	22	12
11	Caerphilly Athletic	10	3	2	5	12	19	11
12	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
13	Cardiff Draconians	8	2	3	3	11	14	9
14	Newport City FC	8	2	2	4	12	9	8
15	Llantwit Major	9	2	2	5	8	21	8
16	Llanelli Town	11	0	2	9	9	33	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Llanelli Town	Afan Lido
Ynyshir Albions	2-6 L	0-0 D
Baglan Dragons	1-2 L	1-2 L
Llantwit Major	0-2 L	5-0 W
Caerau Ely	0-3 L	0-2 L
Carmarthen	2-2 D	1-3 L
Pure Swansea	0-3 L	5-5 D
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	1-1 D	2-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Afan Lido (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Llanelli Town

DLLDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-3	2-6	–	–	L
02/10	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-0	1-2	0	5	L
26/09	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
04/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
31/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
28/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-3	2-4	5	7	L
15/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
07/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	3	7	D

Afan Lido

WLWLDLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	4-3	5-5	8	6	D
02/10	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
25/09	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/09	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
04/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
31/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
21/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
14/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	5-0	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Llanelli Town vs Afan Lido?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Afan Lido win (52%). Probabilities: Llanelli Town 26%, draw 22%, Afan Lido 52%.

How many goals are expected in Llanelli Town vs Afan Lido?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Llanelli Town 1.49 · Afan Lido 2.16), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Llanelli Town vs Afan Lido?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.