Football · Wales Championship South · 30/10, 20:30

Prediction: Pontypridd Utd vs Llanelli Town

Team pages: Pontypridd Utd · Llanelli Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.3Total

Pontypridd Utd3.11

Llanelli Town1.19

1X2

75% 15% 11%

Pontypridd Utd Draw Llanelli Town

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Pontypridd Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWLWDD

Llanelli Town 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Pontypridd Utd 3–3 Llanelli Town (6 last)

Pontypridd Utd1-3Llanelli Town
Pontypridd Utd1-2Llanelli Town
Llanelli Town3-0Pontypridd Utd
Llanelli Town1-4Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd4-1Llanelli Town
Llanelli Town0-4Pontypridd Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pontypridd Utd 1532 · Llanelli Town 1377

	Pontypridd Utd	Draw	Llanelli Town
Our model	75%	15%	11%
Market	75%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontypridd Utd (rating 1532 vs 1377).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pontypridd Utd	Llanelli Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.9	0.7 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/0/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 5.7	0.9 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.80

2 (+2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +6’	1.20	6.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pontypridd Utd 3–0–3 Llanelli Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/25 UK Friendlies	Pontypridd Utd	1-3 HT 0-1	Llanelli Town
21/03/25 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	1-2 HT 0-0	Llanelli Town
26/08/24 Wales Championship South	Llanelli Town	3-0 HT 2-0	Pontypridd Utd
04/08/23 Wales League Cup	Llanelli Town	1-4 HT 1-3	Pontypridd Utd
02/04/22 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	4-1 HT 1-1	Llanelli Town
13/08/21 Wales Championship South	Llanelli Town	0-4 HT 0-3	Pontypridd Utd

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	11	6	3	2	28	21	21
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	11	4	4	3	23	19	16
8	Carmarthen	11	4	3	4	23	24	15
9	Afan Lido	12	4	3	5	21	22	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	4	2	5	15	20	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	3	2	5	10	21	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
14	Newport City FC	9	2	3	4	16	13	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	2	3	4	12	17	9
16	Llanelli Town	12	0	2	10	9	36	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pontypridd Utd	Llanelli Town
Baglan Dragons	1-1 D	1-2 L
Llantwit Major	4-1 W	0-2 L
Aberystwyth	1-3 L	0-4 L
Afan Lido	0-1 L	0-3 L
Pure Swansea	4-4 D	0-3 L
Cardiff Draconians	4-1 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pontypridd Utd

WWWDLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	3-0	4-4	1	9	D
10/10	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
06/10	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	2-0	4-1	5	5	W
03/10	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
25/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
28/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	4-4	–	–	D
21/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
07/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	3-2	9	3	W

Llanelli Town

LLDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
10/10	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-3	2-6	–	–	L
02/10	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-0	1-2	0	5	L
26/09	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
04/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
31/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
28/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-3	2-4	5	7	L
15/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pontypridd Utd vs Llanelli Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pontypridd Utd win (75%). Probabilities: Pontypridd Utd 75%, draw 15%, Llanelli Town 11%.

How many goals are expected in Pontypridd Utd vs Llanelli Town?

The model expects 4.3 goals (Pontypridd Utd 3.11 · Llanelli Town 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pontypridd Utd vs Llanelli Town?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.