Football · Wales Championship South · 23/10, 20:45

Prediction: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Cardiff Draconians

Team pages: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC · Cardiff Draconians

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC2.11

Cardiff Draconians1.67

1X2

47% 23% 30%

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Draw Cardiff Draconians

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWWDDLW

Cardiff Draconians 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWWLDD

Head-to-head

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 0–1–1 Cardiff Draconians (2 last)

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC4-4Cardiff Draconians
Cardiff Draconians3-0Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1499 · Cardiff Draconians 1526

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Draw	Cardiff Draconians
Our model	47%	23%	30%
Market	47%	23%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Cardiff Draconians
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.90

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +9’	1.90	3.90	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 0–1–1 Cardiff Draconians

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-4 HT 2-2	Cardiff Draconians
25/10/25 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	3-0 HT 1-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	10	6	2	2	24	17	20
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Carmarthen	10	4	3	3	22	21	15
8	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	10	3	4	3	20	18	13
9	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
10	Afan Lido	11	3	3	5	18	22	12
11	Caerphilly Athletic	10	3	2	5	12	19	11
12	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
13	Cardiff Draconians	8	2	3	3	11	14	9
14	Newport City FC	8	2	2	4	12	9	8
15	Llantwit Major	9	2	2	5	8	21	8
16	Llanelli Town	11	0	2	9	9	33	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Cardiff Draconians
Ynyshir Albions	1-1 D	0-1 L
Caerphilly Athletic	2-2 D	0-0 D
Carmarthen	3-2 W	2-2 D
Afan Lido	5-2 W	4-1 W
Pontypridd Utd	1-2 L	1-4 L
Caerau Ely	2-4 L	1-3 L
Llanelli Town	1-1 D	4-2 W
Baglan Dragons	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

DDLLWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
03/10	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	2-3	3	2	L
26/09	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
04/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
31/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	3-1	3-2	5	1	W
28/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	3-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
14/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	2-2	2-4	6	3	L
07/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
31/07	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	0	D

Cardiff Draconians

DWLDLWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
26/09	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
12/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-2	5	7	W
15/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
07/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
18/04	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
11/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	2-2	4	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Cardiff Draconians?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Trethomas Bluebirds AFC win (47%). Probabilities: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 47%, draw 23%, Cardiff Draconians 30%.

How many goals are expected in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Cardiff Draconians?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2.11 · Cardiff Draconians 1.67), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Cardiff Draconians?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.