Football · Wales Championship South · 31/10, 15:30

Prediction: Aberystwyth vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Team pages: Aberystwyth · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Aberystwyth2.17

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1.34

1X2

55% 22% 22%

Aberystwyth Draw Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Aberystwyth 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWDWL

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDDLWW

Head-to-head

Aberystwyth 2–0 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (2 last)

Aberystwyth3-0Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC2-3Aberystwyth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aberystwyth 1591 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1504

	Aberystwyth	Draw	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Our model	55%	22%	22%
Market	55%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aberystwyth (rating 1591 vs 1504).
H2H favours Aberystwyth: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aberystwyth	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	2.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	1.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:34 +9’	1.61	4.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aberystwyth 2–0–0 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Wales Championship South	Aberystwyth	3-0 HT 2-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
01/11/25 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-3 HT 0-1	Aberystwyth

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	11	6	3	2	28	21	21
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	11	4	4	3	23	19	16
8	Carmarthen	11	4	3	4	23	24	15
9	Afan Lido	12	4	3	5	21	22	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	4	2	5	15	20	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	3	2	5	10	21	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
14	Newport City FC	9	2	3	4	16	13	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	2	3	4	12	17	9
16	Llanelli Town	12	0	2	10	9	36	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aberystwyth	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Caerau Ely	0-1 L	2-4 L
Pontypridd Utd	3-1 W	1-2 L
Caerphilly Athletic	3-2 W	2-2 D
Llanelli Town	4-0 W	1-1 D
Pontardawe Town	1-0 W	2-3 L
Treowen Stars	1-2 L	3-1 W
Afan Lido	5-2 W	5-2 W
Ynyshir Albions	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Aberystwyth (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aberystwyth

DWLWWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
03/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
25/09	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
12/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
31/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	4-0	7	2	W
28/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	2-0	5-1	3	3	W
08/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
01/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	5-2	8	8	W
18/04	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

DLLWWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	2-1	3-1	8	1	W
10/10	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
03/10	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	2-3	3	2	L
26/09	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
04/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
31/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	3-1	3-2	5	1	W
28/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	3-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
14/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	2-2	2-4	6	3	L
07/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aberystwyth vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aberystwyth win (55%). Probabilities: Aberystwyth 55%, draw 22%, Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Aberystwyth vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Aberystwyth 2.17 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1.34), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Aberystwyth vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.