Football · Wales Championship South · 31/10, 15:00
Prediction: Llantwit Major vs Newport City FC
Team pages: Llantwit Major · Newport City FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.42Total
Llantwit Major1.59
Newport City FC1.83
1X2
Llantwit Major
Draw
Newport City FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Llantwit Major
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Newport City FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Llantwit Major
1–2–2
Newport City FC
(5 last)
- Newport City FC2-1Llantwit Major
- Llantwit Major2-2Newport City FC
- Newport City FC2-1Llantwit Major
- Llantwit Major1-1Newport City FC
- Llantwit Major2-0Newport City FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Llantwit Major 1480 · Newport City FC 1503
| Llantwit Major | Draw | Newport City FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Newport City FC: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Llantwit Major | Newport City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.1 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.5 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 1.6 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Llantwit Major 1–2–2 Newport City FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Wales Championship South | Newport City FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Llantwit Major |
| 08/11/25 Wales Championship South | Llantwit Major | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Newport City FC |
| 28/03/25 Wales Championship South | Newport City FC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Llantwit Major |
| 12/10/24 Wales Championship South | Llantwit Major | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Newport City FC |
| 20/07/24 Wales League Cup | Llantwit Major | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Newport City FC |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Utd | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 21 | 21 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 16 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 16 |
| 8 | Carmarthen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 24 | 15 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 15 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 14 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 13 |
| 12 | Llantwit Major | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 11 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 10 |
| 14 | Newport City FC | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 9 |
| 15 | Cardiff Draconians | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
| 16 | Llanelli Town | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 36 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Llantwit Major | Newport City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Pontardawe Town | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Pontypridd Utd | 1-4 L | 4-4 D |
| Carmarthen | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Llanelli Town | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Baglan Dragons | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Afan Lido | 0-5 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Newport City FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Llantwit Major
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/10 | Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 06/10 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 02/10 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/09 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 07/08 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Pure Swansea Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Newport City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 09/10 | Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 03/10 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 25/09 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 21/08 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Llantwit Major vs Newport City FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Newport City FC win (43%). Probabilities: Llantwit Major 33%, draw 24%, Newport City FC 43%.
How many goals are expected in Llantwit Major vs Newport City FC?
The model expects 3.42 goals (Llantwit Major 1.59 · Newport City FC 1.83), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Llantwit Major vs Newport City FC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.