Football · Wales Championship South · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: Cardiff Draconians vs Afan Lido

Team pages: Cardiff Draconians · Afan Lido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Cardiff Draconians1.81

Afan Lido1.8

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Cardiff Draconians Draw Afan Lido

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Cardiff Draconians 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWLDDL

Afan Lido 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWDLDW

Head-to-head

Cardiff Draconians 2–0 Afan Lido (2 last)

Cardiff Draconians4-1Afan Lido
Afan Lido1-3Cardiff Draconians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cardiff Draconians 1504 · Afan Lido 1485

	Cardiff Draconians	Draw	Afan Lido
Our model	38%	24%	38%
Market	38%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cardiff Draconians: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cardiff Draconians	Afan Lido
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	1.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.75

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +4’	2.35	3.75	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff Draconians 2–0–0 Afan Lido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	4-1 HT 1-1	Afan Lido
16/09/25 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	1-3 HT 0-1	Cardiff Draconians

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	11	6	3	2	28	21	21
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	11	4	4	3	23	19	16
8	Carmarthen	11	4	3	4	23	24	15
9	Afan Lido	12	4	3	5	21	22	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	4	2	5	15	20	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	3	2	5	10	21	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
14	Newport City FC	9	2	3	4	16	13	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	2	3	4	12	17	9
16	Llanelli Town	12	0	2	10	9	36	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cardiff Draconians	Afan Lido
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	1-3 L	2-5 L
Carmarthen	2-2 D	1-3 L
Newport City FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Caerau Ely	1-3 L	0-2 L
Baglan Dragons	2-1 W	1-2 L
Llanelli Town	4-2 W	3-0 W
Pontypridd Utd	1-4 L	1-0 W
Ynyshir Albions	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cardiff Draconians

WLDLWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	6	1	L
10/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
26/09	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
12/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-2	5	7	W
15/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
07/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
18/04	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	5	W

Afan Lido

LWLDLWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
09/10	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	4-3	5-5	8	6	D
02/10	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
25/09	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/09	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
04/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
31/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
21/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
14/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	1-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cardiff Draconians vs Afan Lido?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cardiff Draconians win (38%). Probabilities: Cardiff Draconians 38%, draw 24%, Afan Lido 38%.

How many goals are expected in Cardiff Draconians vs Afan Lido?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Cardiff Draconians 1.81 · Afan Lido 1.8), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cardiff Draconians vs Afan Lido?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.