Football · Wales Championship South · 30/10, 20:45

Prediction: Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau Ely

Team pages: Caerphilly Athletic · Caerau Ely

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Caerphilly Athletic1.52

Caerau Ely1.77

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Caerphilly Athletic Draw Caerau Ely

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Caerphilly Athletic 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLLLWW

Caerau Ely 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWWWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caerphilly Athletic 1515 · Caerau Ely 1540

	Caerphilly Athletic	Draw	Caerau Ely
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	33%	23%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caerphilly Athletic	Caerau Ely
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.90

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:21 +7’	2.70	3.90	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	11	6	3	2	28	21	21
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	11	4	4	3	23	19	16
8	Carmarthen	11	4	3	4	23	24	15
9	Afan Lido	12	4	3	5	21	22	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	4	2	5	15	20	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	3	2	5	10	21	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
14	Newport City FC	9	2	3	4	16	13	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	2	3	4	12	17	9
16	Llanelli Town	12	0	2	10	9	36	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caerphilly Athletic	Caerau Ely
Pure Swansea	1-3 L	1-5 L
Aberystwyth	2-3 L	1-0 W
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-2 D	4-2 W
Baglan Dragons	1-0 W	1-3 L
Ynyshir Albions	2-1 W	1-1 D
Treowen Stars	0-3 L	3-2 W
Cardiff Draconians	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Caerau Ely (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caerphilly Athletic

DLWWDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
09/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	5	7	W
03/10	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	1-3	0	3	L
25/09	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
12/09	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	4	6	L
04/09	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-2	11	1	D
31/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
07/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Caerau Ely

DWLLWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
10/10	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
02/10	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
26/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
11/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
31/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
28/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
21/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	1-0	1-5	6	6	L
14/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
07/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau Ely?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caerau Ely win (43%). Probabilities: Caerphilly Athletic 33%, draw 24%, Caerau Ely 43%.

How many goals are expected in Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau Ely?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Caerphilly Athletic 1.52 · Caerau Ely 1.77), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Caerphilly Athletic vs Caerau Ely?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.