Football · Wales Championship South · 07/11, 20:45

Prediction: Carmarthen vs Aberystwyth

Team pages: Carmarthen · Aberystwyth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Carmarthen1.52

Aberystwyth2.01

1X2

29% 23% 49%

Carmarthen Draw Aberystwyth

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Carmarthen 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Aberystwyth 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Carmarthen 2–2–2 Aberystwyth (6 last)

Aberystwyth1-1Carmarthen
Carmarthen1-0Aberystwyth
Carmarthen0-3Aberystwyth
Carmarthen0-0Aberystwyth
Aberystwyth3-2Carmarthen
Carmarthen6-2Aberystwyth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carmarthen 1461 · Aberystwyth 1583

	Carmarthen	Draw	Aberystwyth
Our model	28%	23%	48%
Market	29%	22%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aberystwyth (rating 1461 vs 1583).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carmarthen	Aberystwyth
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.2	2.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.00

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
09:00 +12’	3.10	4.00	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carmarthen 2–2–2 Aberystwyth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 Wales Championship South	Aberystwyth	1-1 HT 0-1	Carmarthen
22/08/25 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	1-0 HT 1-0	Aberystwyth
29/10/19 Wales League Cup	Carmarthen	0-3 HT 0-1	Aberystwyth
18/10/19 Wales Premier League	Carmarthen	0-0 HT 0-0	Aberystwyth
16/08/19 Wales Premier League	Aberystwyth	3-2 HT 1-1	Carmarthen
26/04/19 Wales Premier League	Carmarthen	6-2 HT 1-1	Aberystwyth

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pontypridd Utd	12	7	3	2	32	21	24
2	Aberystwyth	10	7	1	2	24	10	22
3	Caerau Ely	12	7	1	4	23	20	22
4	Pure Swansea	10	6	3	1	32	15	21
5	Ynyshir Albions	10	5	4	1	19	11	19
6	Baglan Dragons	12	5	2	5	12	13	17
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	12	4	4	4	24	21	16
8	Treowen Stars	11	5	1	5	20	21	16
9	Carmarthen	12	4	3	5	24	26	15
10	Afan Lido	13	4	3	6	21	24	15
11	Caerphilly Athletic	12	4	2	6	15	21	14
12	Pontardawe Town	10	4	1	5	17	18	13
13	Newport City FC	10	3	3	4	19	15	12
14	Cardiff Draconians	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
15	Llantwit Major	11	3	2	6	12	24	11
16	Llanelli Town	13	0	2	11	9	40	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carmarthen	Aberystwyth
Pontardawe Town	1-2 L	1-0 W
Caerphilly Athletic	1-3 L	3-2 W
Llantwit Major	1-2 L	5-1 W
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-3 L	2-1 W
Llanelli Town	2-2 D	4-0 W
Treowen Stars	2-4 L	1-2 L
Afan Lido	3-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aberystwyth (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carmarthen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
23/10	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-3	1-3	6	2	L
10/10	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
02/10	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
25/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
12/09	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
31/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-3	6	1	L
28/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-0	2-4	0	0	L
14/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	3-1	4	5	W

Aberystwyth

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	11	6	W
10/10	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
03/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
25/09	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
12/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
31/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	4-0	7	2	W
28/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	2-0	5-1	3	3	W
08/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
01/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	5-2	8	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carmarthen vs Aberystwyth?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aberystwyth win (49%). Probabilities: Carmarthen 29%, draw 23%, Aberystwyth 49%.

How many goals are expected in Carmarthen vs Aberystwyth?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Carmarthen 1.52 · Aberystwyth 2.01), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carmarthen vs Aberystwyth?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.