Prediction: Pure Swansea vs Cardiff Draconians
Team pages: Cardiff Draconians
| Pure Swansea | Draw | Cardiff Draconians | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 20% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pure Swansea (rating 1553 vs 1509).
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pure Swansea | Cardiff Draconians | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 2.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.4 |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pontypridd Utd | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Caerau Ely | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 22 |
| 4 | Pure Swansea | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 15 | 21 |
| 5 | Ynyshir Albions | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Baglan Dragons | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 17 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 16 |
| 8 | Treowen Stars | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 16 |
| 9 | Carmarthen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 15 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 15 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 13 |
| 13 | Newport City FC | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 12 |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 12 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 11 |
| 16 | Llanelli Town | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 40 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pure Swansea | Cardiff Draconians |
|---|---|---|
| Ynyshir Albions | 2-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Afan Lido | 5-5 D | 2-0 W |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Pontypridd Utd | 4-4 D | 1-4 L |
| Caerau Ely | 5-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Llanelli Town | 3-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Baglan Dragons | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Pure Swansea (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pure Swansea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
2-2 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 09/10 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
3-4 | 5-5 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 03/10 | Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/09 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/09 | Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 28/08 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-4 | – | – | D |
| 21/08 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/08 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 3-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Cardiff Draconians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/10 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 10/10 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 03/10 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 26/09 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
3-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 07/08 | Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pure Swansea vs Cardiff Draconians?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pure Swansea win (60%). Probabilities: Pure Swansea 60%, draw 20%, Cardiff Draconians 20%.
How many goals are expected in Pure Swansea vs Cardiff Draconians?
The model expects 4 goals (Pure Swansea 2.53 · Cardiff Draconians 1.46), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Pure Swansea vs Cardiff Draconians?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.