Football · Wales Championship South · 06/11, 20:30

Prediction: Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions

Team pages: Baglan Dragons · Ynyshir Albions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Baglan Dragons1.13

Ynyshir Albions1.35

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Baglan Dragons Draw Ynyshir Albions

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Baglan Dragons 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLLWD

Ynyshir Albions 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDDWWW

Head-to-head

Baglan Dragons 1–1–0 Ynyshir Albions (2 last)

Ynyshir Albions0-0Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons2-1Ynyshir Albions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baglan Dragons 1527 · Ynyshir Albions 1542

	Baglan Dragons	Draw	Ynyshir Albions
Our model	30%	30%	41%
Market	32%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baglan Dragons	Ynyshir Albions
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	3.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:52 +12’	2.80	3.50	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baglan Dragons 1–1–0 Ynyshir Albions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	0-0 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons
07/11/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	2-1 HT 2-0	Ynyshir Albions

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pontypridd Utd	12	7	3	2	32	21	24
2	Aberystwyth	10	7	1	2	24	10	22
3	Caerau Ely	12	7	1	4	23	20	22
4	Pure Swansea	10	6	3	1	32	15	21
5	Ynyshir Albions	10	5	4	1	19	11	19
6	Baglan Dragons	12	5	2	5	12	13	17
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	12	4	4	4	24	21	16
8	Treowen Stars	11	5	1	5	20	21	16
9	Carmarthen	12	4	3	5	24	26	15
10	Afan Lido	13	4	3	6	21	24	15
11	Caerphilly Athletic	12	4	2	6	15	21	14
12	Pontardawe Town	10	4	1	5	17	18	13
13	Newport City FC	10	3	3	4	19	15	12
14	Cardiff Draconians	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
15	Llantwit Major	11	3	2	6	12	24	11
16	Llanelli Town	13	0	2	11	9	40	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baglan Dragons	Ynyshir Albions
Llanelli Town	2-1 W	6-2 W
Carmarthen	1-2 L	2-2 D
Cardiff Draconians	1-2 L	1-0 W
Afan Lido	2-1 W	0-0 D
Caerphilly Athletic	0-1 L	1-2 L
Caerau Ely	3-1 W	1-1 D
Newport City FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Pure Swansea	0-3 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ynyshir Albions (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baglan Dragons

LWWWLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
02/10	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	2-1	14	5	W
25/09	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
12/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
31/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
15/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	2	1	L

Ynyshir Albions

WDLWDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	2-2	4-2	–	–	W
10/10	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-0	6-2	–	–	W
03/10	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
26/09	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
12/09	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
31/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ynyshir Albions win (42%). Probabilities: Baglan Dragons 31%, draw 27%, Ynyshir Albions 42%.

How many goals are expected in Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Baglan Dragons 1.13 · Ynyshir Albions 1.35), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.