Football · Wales Championship South · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Llantwit Major

Team pages: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC · Llantwit Major

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC2.25

Llantwit Major1.48

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Draw Llantwit Major

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDLWWL

Llantwit Major 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWLDWL

Head-to-head

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1–2–1 Llantwit Major (4 last)

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC2-2Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major2-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1-1Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major0-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1509 · Llantwit Major 1471

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Draw	Llantwit Major
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Llantwit Major
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:30 +38’	1.67	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1–2–1 Llantwit Major

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/12/25 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-2 HT 0-0	Llantwit Major
06/09/25 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	2-1 HT 0-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
27/09/24 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	1-1 HT 1-1	Llantwit Major
27/07/24 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	0-1 HT 0-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pontypridd Utd	12	7	3	2	32	21	24
2	Aberystwyth	10	7	1	2	24	10	22
3	Caerau Ely	12	7	1	4	23	20	22
4	Pure Swansea	10	6	3	1	32	15	21
5	Ynyshir Albions	10	5	4	1	19	11	19
6	Baglan Dragons	12	5	2	5	12	13	17
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	12	4	4	4	24	21	16
8	Treowen Stars	11	5	1	5	20	21	16
9	Carmarthen	12	4	3	5	24	26	15
10	Afan Lido	13	4	3	6	21	24	15
11	Caerphilly Athletic	12	4	2	6	15	21	14
12	Pontardawe Town	10	4	1	5	17	18	13
13	Newport City FC	10	3	3	4	19	15	12
14	Cardiff Draconians	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
15	Llantwit Major	11	3	2	6	12	24	11
16	Llanelli Town	13	0	2	11	9	40	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Llantwit Major
Aberystwyth	1-2 L	1-5 L
Treowen Stars	3-1 W	1-1 D
Pontardawe Town	2-3 L	1-1 D
Carmarthen	3-2 W	2-1 W
Afan Lido	5-2 W	0-5 L
Pontypridd Utd	1-2 L	1-4 L
Caerau Ely	2-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

LLWWDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
23/10	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	2-1	3-1	8	1	W
10/10	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
03/10	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	2-3	3	2	L
26/09	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
04/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
31/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	3-1	3-2	5	1	W
28/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	3-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
14/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	2-2	2-4	6	3	L

Llantwit Major

LLLDWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-3	3	6	L
23/10	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
10/10	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
06/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-4	4	5	L
02/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
26/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
15/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
07/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-1	0-5	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Llantwit Major?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Trethomas Bluebirds AFC win (54%). Probabilities: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 54%, draw 22%, Llantwit Major 24%.

How many goals are expected in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Llantwit Major?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2.25 · Llantwit Major 1.48), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Llantwit Major?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.