Football · Wales Championship South · 06/11, 20:30

Prediction: Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic

Team pages: Afan Lido · Caerphilly Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Afan Lido1.62

Caerphilly Athletic1.61

1X2

38% 25% 38%

Afan Lido Draw Caerphilly Athletic

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Afan Lido 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Caerphilly Athletic 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Afan Lido 1480 · Caerphilly Athletic 1495

	Afan Lido	Draw	Caerphilly Athletic
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	38%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Afan Lido	Caerphilly Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.1	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.75

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:58 +6’	2.35	3.75	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pontypridd Utd	12	7	3	2	32	21	24
2	Aberystwyth	10	7	1	2	24	10	22
3	Caerau Ely	12	7	1	4	23	20	22
4	Pure Swansea	10	6	3	1	32	15	21
5	Ynyshir Albions	10	5	4	1	19	11	19
6	Baglan Dragons	12	5	2	5	12	13	17
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	12	4	4	4	24	21	16
8	Treowen Stars	11	5	1	5	20	21	16
9	Carmarthen	12	4	3	5	24	26	15
10	Afan Lido	13	4	3	6	21	24	15
11	Caerphilly Athletic	12	4	2	6	15	21	14
12	Pontardawe Town	10	4	1	5	17	18	13
13	Newport City FC	10	3	3	4	19	15	12
14	Cardiff Draconians	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
15	Llantwit Major	11	3	2	6	12	24	11
16	Llanelli Town	13	0	2	11	9	40	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Afan Lido	Caerphilly Athletic
Pure Swansea	5-5 D	1-3 L
Caerau Ely	0-2 L	0-1 L
Newport City FC	0-0 D	3-2 W
Pontypridd Utd	1-0 W	1-2 L
Baglan Dragons	1-2 L	1-0 W
Ynyshir Albions	0-0 D	2-1 W
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-5 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Caerphilly Athletic (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Afan Lido

WLDLWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
23/10	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	2	4	W
09/10	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	4-3	5-5	8	6	D
02/10	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
25/09	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/09	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
04/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
31/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
21/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

Caerphilly Athletic

LWWDLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
23/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
09/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	5	7	W
03/10	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	1-3	0	3	L
25/09	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
12/09	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	4	6	L
04/09	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-2	11	1	D
31/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Afan Lido win (38%). Probabilities: Afan Lido 38%, draw 25%, Caerphilly Athletic 38%.

How many goals are expected in Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Afan Lido 1.62 · Caerphilly Athletic 1.61), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Afan Lido vs Caerphilly Athletic?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.