Football · Wales Championship South · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Caerau Ely vs Pontypridd Utd

Team pages: Caerau Ely · Pontypridd Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Caerau Ely1.92

Pontypridd Utd1.53

1X2

46% 23% 30%

Caerau Ely Draw Pontypridd Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Caerau Ely 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWLW

Pontypridd Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWLWDDW

Head-to-head

Caerau Ely 1–2–2 Pontypridd Utd (5 last)

Pontypridd Utd0-0Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely2-0Pontypridd Utd
Caerau Ely0-1Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd1-0Caerau Ely
Pontypridd Utd4-4Caerau Ely

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caerau Ely 1558 · Pontypridd Utd 1541

	Caerau Ely	Draw	Pontypridd Utd
Our model	46%	24%	30%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pontypridd Utd: 2-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caerau Ely	Pontypridd Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	2.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	3.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.5	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:04 +1’	1.91	4.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caerau Ely 1–2–2 Pontypridd Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	Caerau Ely
25/08/25 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	2-0 HT 1-0	Pontypridd Utd
04/02/25 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	0-1 HT 0-0	Pontypridd Utd
23/08/24 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Caerau Ely
25/01/20 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	4-4	Caerau Ely

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pontypridd Utd	12	7	3	2	32	21	24
2	Aberystwyth	10	7	1	2	24	10	22
3	Caerau Ely	12	7	1	4	23	20	22
4	Pure Swansea	10	6	3	1	32	15	21
5	Ynyshir Albions	10	5	4	1	19	11	19
6	Baglan Dragons	12	5	2	5	12	13	17
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	12	4	4	4	24	21	16
8	Treowen Stars	11	5	1	5	20	21	16
9	Carmarthen	12	4	3	5	24	26	15
10	Afan Lido	13	4	3	6	21	24	15
11	Caerphilly Athletic	12	4	2	6	15	21	14
12	Pontardawe Town	10	4	1	5	17	18	13
13	Newport City FC	10	3	3	4	19	15	12
14	Cardiff Draconians	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
15	Llantwit Major	11	3	2	6	12	24	11
16	Llanelli Town	13	0	2	11	9	40	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caerau Ely	Pontypridd Utd
Caerphilly Athletic	1-0 W	2-1 W
Llantwit Major	0-2 L	4-1 W
Aberystwyth	1-0 W	1-3 L
Afan Lido	2-0 W	0-1 L
Cardiff Draconians	3-1 W	4-1 W
Llanelli Town	3-0 W	4-0 W
Baglan Dragons	1-3 L	1-1 D
Pure Swansea	1-5 L	4-4 D
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caerau Ely

WLLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
23/10	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
10/10	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
02/10	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
26/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
11/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
31/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
28/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
21/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	1-0	1-5	6	6	L
14/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-2	3	3	W

Pontypridd Utd

WWDLWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	10	3	W
23/10	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	3-0	4-4	1	9	D
10/10	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
06/10	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	2-0	4-1	5	5	W
03/10	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
25/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
28/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	4-4	–	–	D
21/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caerau Ely vs Pontypridd Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caerau Ely win (46%). Probabilities: Caerau Ely 46%, draw 23%, Pontypridd Utd 30%.

How many goals are expected in Caerau Ely vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Caerau Ely 1.92 · Pontypridd Utd 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Caerau Ely vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.