Football · Wales Championship South · 13/11, 20:30

Prediction: Pure Swansea vs Treowen Stars

Team pages: Pure Swansea · Treowen Stars

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.24Total

Pure Swansea2.66

Treowen Stars1.58

1X2

60% 19% 21%

Pure Swansea Draw Treowen Stars

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Pure Swansea 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDWDLW

Treowen Stars 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLLLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pure Swansea 1549 · Treowen Stars 1493

	Pure Swansea	Draw	Treowen Stars
Our model	60%	19%	21%
Market	60%	20%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 4.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pure Swansea (rating 1549 vs 1493).
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pure Swansea	Treowen Stars
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.5	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.9	3.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:59 +4’	1.50	4.50	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pontypridd Utd	13	8	3	2	35	22	27
2	Aberystwyth	11	8	1	2	28	10	25
3	Pure Swansea	11	7	3	1	34	15	24
4	Caerau Ely	13	7	1	5	24	23	22
5	Baglan Dragons	13	6	2	5	14	14	20
6	Ynyshir Albions	11	5	4	2	20	13	19
7	Afan Lido	14	5	3	6	24	26	18
8	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	13	4	5	4	26	23	17
9	Treowen Stars	12	5	2	5	22	23	17
10	Carmarthen	13	4	3	6	24	30	15
11	Pontardawe Town	11	4	2	5	20	21	14
12	Caerphilly Athletic	13	4	2	7	17	24	14
13	Newport City FC	11	3	4	4	21	17	13
14	Cardiff Draconians	11	3	3	5	14	19	12
15	Llantwit Major	12	3	3	6	14	26	12
16	Llanelli Town	14	0	3	11	12	43	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pure Swansea	Treowen Stars
Ynyshir Albions	2-4 L	1-2 L
Caerphilly Athletic	3-1 W	3-0 W
Aberystwyth	0-0 D	2-1 W
Pontardawe Town	4-0 W	1-6 L
Caerau Ely	5-1 W	2-3 L
Llanelli Town	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pure Swansea

WWWDWDWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	2-0	7	7	W
31/10	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	2-2	2-4	–	–	L
09/10	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	3-4	5-5	4	6	D
03/10	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-1	6	3	W
25/09	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
11/09	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-0	4-0	5	1	W
28/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-0	4-4	–	–	D
21/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	5-1	4	6	W
15/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	3-0	14	1	W
09/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	4	1	W

Treowen Stars

WWWLWDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
03/10	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
26/09	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-5	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
04/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
31/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	4-2	6	0	W
15/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	2-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pure Swansea vs Treowen Stars?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pure Swansea win (60%). Probabilities: Pure Swansea 60%, draw 19%, Treowen Stars 21%.

How many goals are expected in Pure Swansea vs Treowen Stars?

The model expects 4.24 goals (Pure Swansea 2.66 · Treowen Stars 1.58), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pure Swansea vs Treowen Stars?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.