Football · Wales Championship South · 06/11, 20:30

Prediction: Newport City FC vs Treowen Stars

Team pages: Newport City FC · Treowen Stars

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.8Total

Newport City FC2.18

Treowen Stars1.61

1X2

50% 22% 28%

Newport City FC Draw Treowen Stars

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Newport City FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDDLDW

Treowen Stars 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWDLLL

Head-to-head

Newport City FC 0–2 Treowen Stars (2 last)

Newport City FC2-3Treowen Stars
Treowen Stars2-0Newport City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newport City FC 1510 · Treowen Stars 1495

	Newport City FC	Draw	Treowen Stars
Our model	50%	22%	28%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Treowen Stars: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newport City FC	Treowen Stars
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:03 +4’	1.80	4.00	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport City FC 0–0–2 Treowen Stars

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Treowen Stars
29/11/25 Wales Championship South	Treowen Stars	2-0 HT 0-0	Newport City FC

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pontypridd Utd	12	7	3	2	32	21	24
2	Aberystwyth	10	7	1	2	24	10	22
3	Caerau Ely	12	7	1	4	23	20	22
4	Pure Swansea	10	6	3	1	32	15	21
5	Ynyshir Albions	10	5	4	1	19	11	19
6	Baglan Dragons	12	5	2	5	12	13	17
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	12	4	4	4	24	21	16
8	Treowen Stars	11	5	1	5	20	21	16
9	Carmarthen	12	4	3	5	24	26	15
10	Afan Lido	13	4	3	6	21	24	15
11	Caerphilly Athletic	12	4	2	6	15	21	14
12	Pontardawe Town	10	4	1	5	17	18	13
13	Newport City FC	10	3	3	4	19	15	12
14	Cardiff Draconians	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
15	Llantwit Major	11	3	2	6	12	24	11
16	Llanelli Town	13	0	2	11	9	40	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newport City FC	Treowen Stars
Llantwit Major	3-2 W	1-1 D
Pontypridd Utd	4-4 D	2-3 L
Caerphilly Athletic	2-3 L	3-0 W
Ynyshir Albions	0-1 L	1-2 L
Pontardawe Town	4-0 W	1-6 L
Carmarthen	1-2 L	4-2 W
Llanelli Town	4-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Newport City FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newport City FC

WLWLLDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	3-1	3-2	1	6	W
23/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-3	4-4	3	9	D
09/10	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	0	7	L
03/10	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
25/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
21/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
15/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
08/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
31/07	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-1	5	6	W

Treowen Stars

LWWWLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
03/10	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
26/09	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-5	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
04/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
31/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	4-2	6	0	W
15/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
01/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newport City FC vs Treowen Stars?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newport City FC win (50%). Probabilities: Newport City FC 50%, draw 22%, Treowen Stars 28%.

How many goals are expected in Newport City FC vs Treowen Stars?

The model expects 3.8 goals (Newport City FC 2.18 · Treowen Stars 1.61), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newport City FC vs Treowen Stars?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.