Football · Wales Championship South · 14/08, 20:45

Prediction: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Caerau Ely

Team pages: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC · Caerau Ely

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1.5

Caerau Ely2.13

1X2

26% 23% 51%

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Draw Caerau Ely

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Caerau Ely 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1–2–1 Caerau Ely (4 last)

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1-5Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely1-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1-0Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely2-2Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1461 · Caerau Ely 1559

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Draw	Caerau Ely
Our model	26%	23%	51%
Market	26%	23%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caerau Ely (rating 1461 vs 1559).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Caerau Ely
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5	2.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.90

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.47
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.83 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:04 +5’	3.40	3.90	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:07 +2’	3.47	3.69	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1–2–1 Caerau Ely

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/01/26 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	1-5 HT 1-2	Caerau Ely
08/08/25 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	1-1 HT 0-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
21/02/25 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	1-0 HT 1-0	Caerau Ely
26/08/24 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	2-2 HT 0-1	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Carmarthen	2	2	0	0	6	4	6
2	Pontypridd Utd	2	2	0	0	6	4	6
4	Ynyshir Albions	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Afan Lido	2	1	0	1	7	5	3
6	Aberystwyth	2	1	0	1	6	4	3
7	Newport City FC	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
7	Pontardawe Town	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
9	Treowen Stars	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	Caerau Ely	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
12	Cardiff Draconians	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	Llanelli Town	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
14	Baglan Dragons	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
14	Caerphilly Athletic	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
16	Llantwit Major	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	Caerau Ely
Baglan Dragons	0-0 D	5-0 W
Ynyshir Albions	2-2 D	1-1 D
Pontypridd Utd	4-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
31/07	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
14/07	Barry Town UK Friendlies	0-2	1-5	2	1	L
23/06	Penybont UK Friendlies	0-2	0-3	0	0	L
18/04	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
04/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	4	4	D
28/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
20/03	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	4-2	5	5	W
14/03	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
09/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	7	5	W

Caerau Ely

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	3-4	5	6	L
11/07	Evesham United Club Friendly List	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
30/06	Cardiff Corinthians AFC UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
18/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
04/04	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
28/03	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
21/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	13	1	D
14/03	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	2-0	5-0	2	6	W
10/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	3-0	3-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Caerau Ely?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caerau Ely win (51%). Probabilities: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 26%, draw 23%, Caerau Ely 51%.

How many goals are expected in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Caerau Ely?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1.5 · Caerau Ely 2.13), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Trethomas Bluebirds AFC vs Caerau Ely?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.