Football · Wales Championship South · 21/08, 20:30

Prediction: Newport City FC vs Baglan Dragons

Team pages: Newport City FC · Baglan Dragons

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Newport City FC1.69

Baglan Dragons1.2

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Newport City FC Draw Baglan Dragons

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Newport City FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLWLW

Baglan Dragons 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLDDLW

Head-to-head

Newport City FC 2–2–1 Baglan Dragons (5 last)

Newport City FC1-2Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons3-3Newport City FC
Newport City FC2-0Baglan Dragons
Newport City FC1-0Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons2-2Newport City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newport City FC 1456 · Baglan Dragons 1441

	Newport City FC	Draw	Baglan Dragons
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Newport City FC: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newport City FC	Baglan Dragons
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.5	0.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.3	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.80

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +3’	1.83	3.80	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport City FC 2–2–1 Baglan Dragons

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Baglan Dragons
17/08/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	3-3 HT 2-1	Newport City FC
20/07/25 Wales League Cup	Newport City FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Baglan Dragons
25/03/25 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons
09/11/24 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	2-2 HT 1-1	Newport City FC

Standings · Wales Championship South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	3	3	0	0	9	0	9
2	Pontypridd Utd	3	3	0	0	10	5	9
3	Carmarthen	3	3	0	0	9	5	9
4	Newport City FC	3	2	0	1	9	3	6
5	Treowen Stars	3	2	0	1	7	4	6
6	Caerau Ely	3	1	1	1	8	7	4
7	Ynyshir Albions	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Baglan Dragons	3	1	1	1	1	3	4
9	Aberystwyth	2	1	0	1	6	4	3
10	Afan Lido	3	1	0	2	8	8	3
11	Pontardawe Town	3	1	0	2	5	7	3
12	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	3	0	2	1	3	5	2
13	Cardiff Draconians	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
14	Llanelli Town	3	0	1	2	2	8	1
15	Caerphilly Athletic	3	0	1	2	0	6	1
16	Llantwit Major	3	0	0	3	0	9	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newport City FC	Baglan Dragons
Carmarthen	1-2 L	0-7 L
Cambrian United	0-1 L	0-2 L
Ammanford AFC	0-4 L	0-1 L
Treowen Stars	2-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Newport City FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Newport City FC

LLWLLLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
08/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
31/07	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-1	5	6	W
08/07	Newport County UK Friendlies	0-2	0-5	0	0	L
26/06	Cambrian United UK Friendlies	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
18/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-5	3	0	L
03/04	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
28/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
14/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	3	L

Baglan Dragons

LLLDLLDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
31/07	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
18/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
03/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
28/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	0-7	3	0	L
24/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
20/03	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
17/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	6	6	L
14/03	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-2	0-5	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newport City FC vs Baglan Dragons?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newport City FC win (48%). Probabilities: Newport City FC 48%, draw 25%, Baglan Dragons 27%.

How many goals are expected in Newport City FC vs Baglan Dragons?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Newport City FC 1.69 · Baglan Dragons 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Newport City FC vs Baglan Dragons?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.