Football · Wales Championship South · 21/08, 20:30

Prediction: Pontypridd Utd vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Team pages: Pontypridd Utd · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Pontypridd Utd2.42

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1.37

1X2

60% 20% 20%

Pontypridd Utd Draw Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Pontypridd Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLLWDDWWW

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLLDDL

Head-to-head

Pontypridd Utd 1–3 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (4 last)

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC4-2Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd2-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC4-0Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd2-3Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pontypridd Utd 1541 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1445

	Pontypridd Utd	Draw	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Our model	60%	20%	20%
Market	60%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontypridd Utd (rating 1541 vs 1445).
H2H favours Trethomas Bluebirds AFC: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pontypridd Utd	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.8	1.5 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +9’	1.50	4.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pontypridd Utd 1–0–3 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-2 HT 1-1	Pontypridd Utd
28/11/25 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	2-1 HT 1-1	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
12/04/25 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-0 HT 3-0	Pontypridd Utd
14/09/24 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	2-3 HT 0-2	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	3	3	0	0	9	0	9
2	Pontypridd Utd	3	3	0	0	10	5	9
3	Carmarthen	3	3	0	0	9	5	9
4	Newport City FC	3	2	0	1	9	3	6
5	Treowen Stars	3	2	0	1	7	4	6
6	Caerau Ely	3	1	1	1	8	7	4
7	Ynyshir Albions	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Baglan Dragons	3	1	1	1	1	3	4
9	Aberystwyth	2	1	0	1	6	4	3
10	Afan Lido	3	1	0	2	8	8	3
11	Pontardawe Town	3	1	0	2	5	7	3
12	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	3	0	2	1	3	5	2
13	Cardiff Draconians	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
14	Llanelli Town	3	0	1	2	2	8	1
15	Caerphilly Athletic	3	0	1	2	0	6	1
16	Llantwit Major	3	0	0	3	0	9	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pontypridd Utd	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Cardiff Draconians	4-1 W	4-4 D
Caerau Ely	0-0 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Pontypridd Utd

DWLLWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
07/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	3-2	9	3	W
01/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
18/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
11/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
04/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
27/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-4	4	5	L
17/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	4-0	5-2	2	5	W
14/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	2-2	3	8	D

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

LWDDDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	2-2	2-4	6	3	L
07/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
31/07	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
14/07	Barry Town UK Friendlies	0-2	1-5	2	1	L
23/06	Penybont UK Friendlies	0-2	0-3	0	0	L
18/04	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
04/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	4	4	D
28/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	9	5	D
20/03	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	4-2	5	5	W
14/03	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pontypridd Utd vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pontypridd Utd win (60%). Probabilities: Pontypridd Utd 60%, draw 20%, Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Pontypridd Utd vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Pontypridd Utd 2.42 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1.37), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pontypridd Utd vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.