Football · Wales Championship South · 15/08, 15:30
Prediction: Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons
Team pages: Llantwit Major · Baglan Dragons
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Llantwit Major1.63
Baglan Dragons1.25
1X2
Llantwit Major
Draw
Baglan Dragons
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Llantwit Major
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Baglan Dragons
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Llantwit Major
1–4–1
Baglan Dragons
(6 last)
- Llantwit Major0-0Baglan Dragons
- Baglan Dragons1-1Llantwit Major
- Llantwit Major2-0Baglan Dragons
- Llantwit Major0-1Baglan Dragons
- Baglan Dragons0-0Llantwit Major
- Baglan Dragons0-0Llantwit Major
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Llantwit Major 1453 · Baglan Dragons 1421
| Llantwit Major | Draw | Baglan Dragons | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Llantwit Major | Baglan Dragons | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.7 | 0.4 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 1.5 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Llantwit Major 1–4–1 Baglan Dragons
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/26 Wales Championship South | Llantwit Major | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Baglan Dragons |
| 04/10/25 Wales Championship South | Baglan Dragons | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Llantwit Major |
| 20/09/25 Wales Cup | Llantwit Major | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Baglan Dragons |
| 08/03/25 Wales Championship South | Llantwit Major | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Baglan Dragons |
| 30/11/24 Wales Championship South | Baglan Dragons | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Llantwit Major |
| 29/03/24 Wales Championship South | Baglan Dragons | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Llantwit Major |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Carmarthen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Utd | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Ynyshir Albions | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Afan Lido | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Newport City FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Pontardawe Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Caerau Ely | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Llanelli Town | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Caerphilly Athletic | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Llantwit Major | Baglan Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Pure Swansea | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Cambrian United | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Caerau Ely | 1-4 L | 0-5 L |
| Ammanford AFC | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Cwmbran Celtic | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Treowen Stars | 3-2 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Llantwit Major (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Llantwit Major
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Pure Swansea Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 20/03 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 14/03 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/03 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/03 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 7 | W |
Baglan Dragons
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Pure Swansea Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 31/07 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/04 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-7 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 24/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 20/03 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 17/03 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 14/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 06/03 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Llantwit Major win (46%). Probabilities: Llantwit Major 46%, draw 25%, Baglan Dragons 29%.
How many goals are expected in Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Llantwit Major 1.63 · Baglan Dragons 1.25), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.