Football · Wales Championship South · 15/08, 15:30

Prediction: Cardiff Draconians vs Pontypridd Utd

Team pages: Cardiff Draconians · Pontypridd Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Cardiff Draconians1.69

Pontypridd Utd1.73

1X2

37% 24% 39%

Cardiff Draconians Draw Pontypridd Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cardiff Draconians 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDDWLD

Pontypridd Utd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWDDWW

Head-to-head

Cardiff Draconians 1–1–0 Pontypridd Utd (2 last)

Cardiff Draconians2-2Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd1-2Cardiff Draconians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cardiff Draconians 1476 · Pontypridd Utd 1509

	Cardiff Draconians	Draw	Pontypridd Utd
Our model	37%	24%	39%
Market	37%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cardiff Draconians	Pontypridd Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.70

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.66 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.73
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:32 +10’	2.40	3.70	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +2’	2.66	3.73	2.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff Draconians 1–1–0 Pontypridd Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	2-2 HT 0-1	Pontypridd Utd
22/08/25 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	1-2 HT 1-0	Cardiff Draconians

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Carmarthen	2	2	0	0	6	4	6
2	Pontypridd Utd	2	2	0	0	6	4	6
4	Ynyshir Albions	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Afan Lido	2	1	0	1	7	5	3
6	Aberystwyth	2	1	0	1	6	4	3
7	Newport City FC	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
7	Pontardawe Town	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
9	Treowen Stars	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	Caerau Ely	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
12	Cardiff Draconians	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
13	Llanelli Town	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
14	Baglan Dragons	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
14	Caerphilly Athletic	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
16	Llantwit Major	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cardiff Draconians	Pontypridd Utd
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-4 D	2-4 L
Trefelin BGC	0-4 L	1-3 L
Carmarthen	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cardiff Draconians

LLLWLDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
18/04	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
11/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	3	4	D
28/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
24/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	4-1	4	3	W
21/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	0	2	L
14/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	2-3	2-3	8	3	L
06/03	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	10	7	L

Pontypridd Utd

LDWLLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	3-2	9	3	W
01/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
18/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
11/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
04/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
27/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-4	4	5	L
17/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	4-0	5-2	2	5	W
14/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
06/03	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-0	0-4	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cardiff Draconians vs Pontypridd Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pontypridd Utd win (39%). Probabilities: Cardiff Draconians 37%, draw 24%, Pontypridd Utd 39%.

How many goals are expected in Cardiff Draconians vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Cardiff Draconians 1.69 · Pontypridd Utd 1.73), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cardiff Draconians vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.