Football · Wales Championship South · 12/09, 15:30

Prediction: Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons

Team pages: Cardiff Draconians · Baglan Dragons

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Cardiff Draconians1.57

Baglan Dragons1.38

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Cardiff Draconians Draw Baglan Dragons

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cardiff Draconians 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWLDLW

Baglan Dragons 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Cardiff Draconians 1–1–0 Baglan Dragons (2 last)

Cardiff Draconians3-1Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons0-0Cardiff Draconians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cardiff Draconians 1487 · Baglan Dragons 1480

	Cardiff Draconians	Draw	Baglan Dragons
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cardiff Draconians	Baglan Dragons
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	1.6 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:07 +7’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff Draconians 1–1–0 Baglan Dragons

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	3-1 HT 1-1	Baglan Dragons
13/09/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	0-0 HT 0-0	Cardiff Draconians

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	5	4	1	0	18	5	13
2	Pontypridd Utd	5	4	1	0	16	10	13
3	Baglan Dragons	7	4	1	2	7	6	13
4	Aberystwyth	5	4	0	1	16	5	12
5	Treowen Stars	6	4	0	2	15	9	12
6	Carmarthen	6	3	1	2	15	14	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	7	2	3	2	14	13	9
8	Ynyshir Albions	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
9	Caerphilly Athletic	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
10	Afan Lido	7	2	1	4	12	15	7
11	Caerau Ely	6	2	1	3	13	17	7
12	Newport City FC	5	2	0	3	9	5	6
13	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
14	Pontardawe Town	5	1	0	4	5	9	3
15	Llanelli Town	7	0	2	5	6	20	2
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cardiff Draconians	Baglan Dragons
Caerphilly Athletic	0-0 D	0-1 L
Afan Lido	4-1 W	2-1 W
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-4 D	0-0 D
Newport City FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cardiff Draconians (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cardiff Draconians

LWLDDWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-2	5	7	W
15/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
07/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
18/04	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
11/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	3	4	D
28/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
24/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	4-1	4	3	W
21/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	0	2	L

Baglan Dragons

LLDDLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
31/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
15/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
31/07	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
18/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
03/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
28/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	0-7	3	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cardiff Draconians win (41%). Probabilities: Cardiff Draconians 41%, draw 26%, Baglan Dragons 33%.

How many goals are expected in Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Cardiff Draconians 1.57 · Baglan Dragons 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.