Football · Wales Championship South · 12/09, 15:30

Prediction: Carmarthen vs Ynyshir Albions

Team pages: Carmarthen · Ynyshir Albions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Carmarthen1.66

Ynyshir Albions1.35

1X2

44% 25% 31%

Carmarthen Draw Ynyshir Albions

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Carmarthen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWWLDL

Ynyshir Albions 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWDLWD

Head-to-head

Carmarthen 3–1–0 Ynyshir Albions (4 last)

Carmarthen0-0Ynyshir Albions
Ynyshir Albions0-2Carmarthen
Carmarthen2-0Ynyshir Albions
Ynyshir Albions1-5Carmarthen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carmarthen 1486 · Ynyshir Albions 1489

	Carmarthen	Draw	Ynyshir Albions
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carmarthen: 3-1-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carmarthen	Ynyshir Albions
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:23 +51’	2.00	3.70	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carmarthen 3–1–0 Ynyshir Albions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	0-0 HT 0-0	Ynyshir Albions
01/11/25 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	0-2 HT 0-1	Carmarthen
28/04/23 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	2-0 HT 1-0	Ynyshir Albions
24/09/22 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	1-5	Carmarthen

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	5	4	1	0	18	5	13
2	Pontypridd Utd	5	4	1	0	16	10	13
3	Baglan Dragons	7	4	1	2	7	6	13
4	Aberystwyth	5	4	0	1	16	5	12
5	Treowen Stars	6	4	0	2	15	9	12
6	Carmarthen	6	3	1	2	15	14	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	7	2	3	2	14	13	9
8	Ynyshir Albions	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
9	Caerphilly Athletic	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
10	Afan Lido	7	2	1	4	12	15	7
11	Caerau Ely	6	2	1	3	13	17	7
12	Newport City FC	5	2	0	3	9	5	6
13	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
14	Pontardawe Town	5	1	0	4	5	9	3
15	Llanelli Town	7	0	2	5	6	20	2
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carmarthen	Ynyshir Albions
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-3 L	2-2 D
Afan Lido	3-1 W	0-0 D
Newport City FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Caerau Ely	4-3 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Carmarthen (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carmarthen

DWLLWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-3	6	1	L
28/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-0	2-4	0	0	L
14/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	4-3	7	6	W
18/04	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-4	8	5	L
04/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
28/03	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	2-0	7-0	8	0	W
21/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	12	3	D

Ynyshir Albions

DLDLDWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
18/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
28/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
24/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-1	1-4	3	3	L
21/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carmarthen vs Ynyshir Albions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carmarthen win (44%). Probabilities: Carmarthen 44%, draw 25%, Ynyshir Albions 31%.

How many goals are expected in Carmarthen vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Carmarthen 1.66 · Ynyshir Albions 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Carmarthen vs Ynyshir Albions?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.