Football · Wales Championship South · 11/09, 20:30

Prediction: Pontypridd Utd vs Afan Lido

Team pages: Pontypridd Utd · Afan Lido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Pontypridd Utd2.25

Afan Lido1.31

1X2

58% 22% 21%

Pontypridd Utd Draw Afan Lido

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Pontypridd Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWWWWD

Afan Lido 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLWLDL

Head-to-head

Pontypridd Utd 3–1–2 Afan Lido (6 last)

Pontypridd Utd2-0Afan Lido
Afan Lido2-2Pontypridd Utd
Afan Lido2-0Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd3-2Afan Lido
Afan Lido2-0Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd8-1Afan Lido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pontypridd Utd 1556 · Afan Lido 1460

	Pontypridd Utd	Draw	Afan Lido
Our model	58%	22%	21%
Market	58%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontypridd Utd (rating 1556 vs 1460).
H2H favours Pontypridd Utd: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pontypridd Utd	Afan Lido
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.10

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
18:44 +14’	1.55	4.10	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pontypridd Utd 3–1–2 Afan Lido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	2-0 HT 0-0	Afan Lido
15/11/25 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	2-2 HT 1-1	Pontypridd Utd
11/03/25 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	2-0 HT 0-0	Pontypridd Utd
26/07/24 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	3-2 HT 3-1	Afan Lido
20/09/22 Wales League Cup	Afan Lido	2-0 HT 0-0	Pontypridd Utd
03/12/21 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	8-1 HT 2-1	Afan Lido

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	5	4	1	0	18	5	13
2	Pontypridd Utd	5	4	1	0	16	10	13
3	Baglan Dragons	7	4	1	2	7	6	13
4	Aberystwyth	5	4	0	1	16	5	12
5	Treowen Stars	6	4	0	2	15	9	12
6	Carmarthen	6	3	1	2	15	14	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	7	2	3	2	14	13	9
8	Ynyshir Albions	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
9	Caerphilly Athletic	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
10	Afan Lido	7	2	1	4	12	15	7
11	Caerau Ely	6	2	1	3	13	17	7
12	Newport City FC	5	2	0	3	9	5	6
13	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
14	Pontardawe Town	5	1	0	4	5	9	3
15	Llanelli Town	7	0	2	5	6	20	2
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pontypridd Utd	Afan Lido
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-1 W	2-5 L
Cardiff Draconians	4-1 W	1-4 L
Pontardawe Town	3-2 W	1-0 W
Carmarthen	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pontypridd Utd

LLWDDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	4-4	–	–	D
21/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
07/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	3-2	9	3	W
01/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
18/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
11/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
04/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
27/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-4	4	5	L

Afan Lido

WWLLWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
31/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
21/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
14/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	5-0	4	7	W
01/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	1-1	2-5	4	8	L
18/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
03/04	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
28/03	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pontypridd Utd vs Afan Lido?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pontypridd Utd win (58%). Probabilities: Pontypridd Utd 58%, draw 22%, Afan Lido 21%.

How many goals are expected in Pontypridd Utd vs Afan Lido?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Pontypridd Utd 2.25 · Afan Lido 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pontypridd Utd vs Afan Lido?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.