Prediction: Treowen Stars vs Llantwit Major
Team pages: Treowen Stars · Llantwit Major
- Llantwit Major3-2Treowen Stars
- Treowen Stars1-1Llantwit Major
| Treowen Stars | Draw | Llantwit Major | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| Market | 62% | 19% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Treowen Stars (rating 1511 vs 1404).
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Treowen Stars | Llantwit Major | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.2 | 1.1 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/0/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 1.8 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Treowen Stars 0–1–1 Llantwit Major
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 Wales Championship South | Llantwit Major | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Treowen Stars |
| 01/11/25 Wales Championship South | Treowen Stars | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Llantwit Major |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Utd | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 | 13 |
| 3 | Baglan Dragons | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Aberystwyth | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Treowen Stars | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | Carmarthen | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 10 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 9 |
| 8 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Caerphilly Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 8 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 7 |
| 11 | Caerau Ely | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 7 |
| 12 | Newport City FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanelli Town | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 2 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Treowen Stars | Llantwit Major |
|---|---|---|
| Caerau Ely | 2-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Aberystwyth | 2-1 W | 1-5 L |
| Ammanford AFC | 1-5 L | 2-3 L |
| Afan Lido | 0-1 L | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Treowen Stars (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Treowen Stars
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/04 | Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South |
0-3 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-5 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 23/03 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
Llantwit Major
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 07/08 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Pure Swansea Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 20/03 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 14/03 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Treowen Stars vs Llantwit Major?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Treowen Stars win (62%). Probabilities: Treowen Stars 62%, draw 19%, Llantwit Major 19%.
How many goals are expected in Treowen Stars vs Llantwit Major?
The model expects 3.91 goals (Treowen Stars 2.54 · Llantwit Major 1.38), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Treowen Stars vs Llantwit Major?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.