Football · Wales Championship South · 25/09, 20:30

Prediction: Afan Lido vs Newport City FC

Team pages: Afan Lido · Newport City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Afan Lido1.57

Newport City FC1.68

1X2

35% 25% 40%

Afan Lido Draw Newport City FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Afan Lido 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLDLW

Newport City FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Afan Lido 0–1–3 Newport City FC (4 last)

Afan Lido0-1Newport City FC
Newport City FC1-0Afan Lido
Newport City FC5-1Afan Lido
Afan Lido1-1Newport City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Afan Lido 1485 · Newport City FC 1457

	Afan Lido	Draw	Newport City FC
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	35%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Newport City FC: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Afan Lido	Newport City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.3 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.60

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 12:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	2.00 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.29

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +8’	2.88	3.75	2.00
22:11 +4’	2.50▼	3.70▼	2.25▲
02:05 +4’	2.45▼	3.60▼	2.30▲
11:56 +34’	2.55▲	3.60	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:46 +89’	2.49	3.75	2.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Afan Lido 0–1–3 Newport City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	0-1 HT 0-1	Newport City FC
25/07/25 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Afan Lido
17/01/25 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	5-1 HT 1-0	Afan Lido
09/08/24 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	1-1 HT 1-1	Newport City FC

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	6	5	1	0	22	5	16
2	Aberystwyth	6	5	0	1	19	7	15
3	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	16	10	13
4	Pontypridd Utd	6	4	1	1	16	11	13
5	Baglan Dragons	8	4	1	3	8	8	13
6	Carmarthen	7	3	2	2	17	16	11
7	Caerau Ely	7	3	1	3	16	17	10
8	Afan Lido	8	3	1	4	13	15	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	7	2	3	2	14	13	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	7	2	2	3	7	12	8
12	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
13	Newport City FC	5	2	0	3	9	5	6
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	5	13	3
15	Llanelli Town	8	0	2	6	6	23	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	2	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Afan Lido	Newport City FC
Baglan Dragons	1-2 L	0-1 L
Ynyshir Albions	0-0 D	0-1 L
Pontardawe Town	1-0 W	4-0 W
Carmarthen	1-3 L	1-2 L
Cardiff Draconians	1-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Newport City FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Afan Lido

WLLWLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
04/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
31/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
21/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
14/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	5-0	4	7	W
01/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	1-1	2-5	4	8	L
18/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
03/04	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	2-0	4-1	7	4	W

Newport City FC

LLWLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
21/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
15/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
08/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
31/07	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-1	5	6	W
18/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-5	3	0	L
03/04	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
28/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
14/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Afan Lido vs Newport City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newport City FC win (40%). Probabilities: Afan Lido 35%, draw 25%, Newport City FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in Afan Lido vs Newport City FC?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Afan Lido 1.57 · Newport City FC 1.68), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Afan Lido vs Newport City FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.