Football · Wales Championship South · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City FC

Team pages: Cardiff Draconians · Newport City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Cardiff Draconians1.53

Newport City FC1.77

1X2

33% 25% 43%

Cardiff Draconians Draw Newport City FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Cardiff Draconians 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLDLWWL

Newport City FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Cardiff Draconians 0–2 Newport City FC (2 last)

Cardiff Draconians0-1Newport City FC
Newport City FC2-1Cardiff Draconians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cardiff Draconians 1485 · Newport City FC 1466

	Cardiff Draconians	Draw	Newport City FC
Our model	33%	25%	43%
Market	33%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Newport City FC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cardiff Draconians	Newport City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +8’	2.75	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff Draconians 0–0–2 Newport City FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	0-1 HT 0-0	Newport City FC
10/12/25 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Cardiff Draconians

Standings · Wales Championship South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	7	5	2	0	22	5	17
2	Aberystwyth	7	5	1	1	19	7	16
3	Pontypridd Utd	7	5	1	1	18	12	16
4	Carmarthen	8	4	2	2	19	17	14
5	Caerau Ely	8	4	1	3	19	18	13
6	Treowen Stars	8	4	1	3	17	16	13
7	Baglan Dragons	9	4	1	4	9	10	13
8	Afan Lido	9	3	2	4	13	15	11
9	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	8	2	4	2	15	14	10
10	Ynyshir Albions	7	2	4	1	7	6	10
11	Caerphilly Athletic	8	2	2	4	8	14	8
12	Newport City FC	6	2	1	3	9	5	7
13	Cardiff Draconians	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
14	Pontardawe Town	7	2	0	5	11	14	6
15	Llantwit Major	6	1	1	4	4	15	4
16	Llanelli Town	9	0	2	7	6	25	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cardiff Draconians	Newport City FC
Baglan Dragons	2-1 W	0-1 L
Llanelli Town	4-2 W	4-1 W
Ynyshir Albions	0-1 L	0-1 L
Afan Lido	4-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cardiff Draconians (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cardiff Draconians

LDDWLDLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
12/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-2	5	7	W
15/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
07/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
18/04	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
11/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	3	4	D
28/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Newport City FC

LWLLWLWLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
21/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
15/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
08/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
31/07	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-1	5	6	W
18/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-5	3	0	L
03/04	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
28/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	2-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newport City FC win (43%). Probabilities: Cardiff Draconians 33%, draw 25%, Newport City FC 43%.

How many goals are expected in Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City FC?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Cardiff Draconians 1.53 · Newport City FC 1.77), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.