Football · Wales Championship South · 03/10, 15:30
Prediction: Pontypridd Utd vs Aberystwyth
Team pages: Pontypridd Utd · Aberystwyth
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
Pontypridd Utd1.47
Aberystwyth1.45
1X2
Pontypridd Utd
Draw
Aberystwyth
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Pontypridd Utd
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Aberystwyth
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pontypridd Utd
2–2–2
Aberystwyth
(6 last)
- Pontypridd Utd0-1Aberystwyth
- Aberystwyth0-0Pontypridd Utd
- Aberystwyth3-0Pontypridd Utd
- Pontypridd Utd0-0Aberystwyth
- Pontypridd Utd2-0Aberystwyth
- Aberystwyth0-1Pontypridd Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pontypridd Utd 1536 · Aberystwyth 1561
| Pontypridd Utd | Draw | Aberystwyth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pontypridd Utd | Aberystwyth | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.8 | 2.6 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pontypridd Utd 2–2–2 Aberystwyth
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/25 Wales Championship South | Pontypridd Utd | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Aberystwyth |
| 16/08/25 Wales Championship South | Aberystwyth | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Pontypridd Utd |
| 21/04/24 Wales Premier League | Aberystwyth | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Pontypridd Utd |
| 09/04/24 Wales Premier League | Pontypridd Utd | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Aberystwyth |
| 26/12/23 Wales Premier League | Pontypridd Utd | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Aberystwyth |
| 19/09/23 Wales League Cup | Aberystwyth | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Pontypridd Utd |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Pontypridd Utd | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Carmarthen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 17 | 14 |
| 5 | Caerau Ely | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 13 |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 13 |
| 7 | Baglan Dragons | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| 8 | Afan Lido | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 11 |
| 9 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 10 |
| 10 | Ynyshir Albions | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 8 |
| 12 | Newport City FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 14 | Pontardawe Town | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 6 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 4 |
| 16 | Llanelli Town | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pontypridd Utd | Aberystwyth |
|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly Athletic | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Afan Lido | 0-1 L | 5-2 W |
| Pure Swansea | 4-4 D | 0-0 D |
| Pontardawe Town | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Treowen Stars | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pontypridd Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/09 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 28/08 | Pure Swansea Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 4-4 | – | – | D |
| 21/08 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 07/08 | Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 04/04 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Aberystwyth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09 | Pure Swansea Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 28/08 | Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pontypridd Utd vs Aberystwyth?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pontypridd Utd win (38%). Probabilities: Pontypridd Utd 38%, draw 25%, Aberystwyth 37%.
How many goals are expected in Pontypridd Utd vs Aberystwyth?
The model expects 2.93 goals (Pontypridd Utd 1.47 · Aberystwyth 1.45), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Pontypridd Utd vs Aberystwyth?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.