Football · Wales Championship South · 02/10, 20:30

Prediction: Carmarthen vs Llantwit Major

Team pages: Carmarthen · Llantwit Major

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Carmarthen2.62

Llantwit Major1.26

1X2

66% 19% 16%

Carmarthen Draw Llantwit Major

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Carmarthen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLDLDW

Llantwit Major 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

Carmarthen 2–2–2 Llantwit Major (6 last)

Carmarthen1-1Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major0-0Carmarthen
Llantwit Major0-2Carmarthen
Carmarthen0-1Llantwit Major
Carmarthen0-3Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major1-2Carmarthen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carmarthen 1499 · Llantwit Major 1439

	Carmarthen	Draw	Llantwit Major
Our model	66%	18%	16%
Market	66%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carmarthen (rating 1499 vs 1439).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carmarthen	Llantwit Major
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.2	0.9 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.7	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +18’	1.36	4.75	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carmarthen 2–2–2 Llantwit Major

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	1-1 HT 1-1	Llantwit Major
16/08/25 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	0-0 HT 0-0	Carmarthen
11/01/25 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	0-2 HT 0-1	Carmarthen
25/10/24 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	0-1 HT 0-1	Llantwit Major
20/04/24 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	0-3 HT 0-2	Llantwit Major
29/07/23 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	1-2 HT 1-0	Carmarthen

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	7	5	2	0	22	5	17
2	Aberystwyth	7	5	1	1	19	7	16
3	Pontypridd Utd	7	5	1	1	18	12	16
4	Carmarthen	8	4	2	2	19	17	14
5	Caerau Ely	8	4	1	3	19	18	13
6	Treowen Stars	8	4	1	3	17	16	13
7	Baglan Dragons	9	4	1	4	9	10	13
8	Afan Lido	9	3	2	4	13	15	11
9	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	8	2	4	2	15	14	10
10	Ynyshir Albions	7	2	4	1	7	6	10
11	Caerphilly Athletic	8	2	2	4	8	14	8
12	Newport City FC	6	2	1	3	9	5	7
13	Cardiff Draconians	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
14	Pontardawe Town	7	2	0	5	11	14	6
15	Llantwit Major	6	1	1	4	4	15	4
16	Llanelli Town	9	0	2	7	6	25	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carmarthen	Llantwit Major
Baglan Dragons	2-1 W	0-1 L
Llanelli Town	2-2 D	2-0 W
Treowen Stars	2-4 L	1-1 D
Afan Lido	3-1 W	0-5 L
Caerau Ely	4-3 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Carmarthen (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carmarthen

LLWWWLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
12/09	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
31/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-3	6	1	L
28/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-0	2-4	0	0	L
14/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	4-3	7	6	W
18/04	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-4	8	5	L
04/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	6	5	L

Llantwit Major

LLDLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
15/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
07/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-1	0-5	3	7	L
01/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
18/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
04/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
28/03	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	1-4	6	4	L
20/03	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-0	1-4	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carmarthen vs Llantwit Major?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carmarthen win (66%). Probabilities: Carmarthen 66%, draw 19%, Llantwit Major 16%.

How many goals are expected in Carmarthen vs Llantwit Major?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Carmarthen 2.62 · Llantwit Major 1.26), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carmarthen vs Llantwit Major?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.