Football · Wales Championship South · 26/09, 15:30

Prediction: Ynyshir Albions vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Team pages: Ynyshir Albions · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Ynyshir Albions1.59

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1.46

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Ynyshir Albions Draw Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ynyshir Albions 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDLWDD

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDDLLWWD

Head-to-head

Ynyshir Albions 0–1–1 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (2 last)

Ynyshir Albions2-2Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC4-1Ynyshir Albions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ynyshir Albions 1511 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1502

	Ynyshir Albions	Draw	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	41%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ynyshir Albions	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	1.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.70

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.50 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:44 +21’	2.20	3.70	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:11 +53’	2.50	3.41	2.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ynyshir Albions 0–1–1 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	2-2 HT 2-1	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
13/09/25 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-1 HT 2-0	Ynyshir Albions

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	7	5	2	0	22	5	17
2	Aberystwyth	7	5	1	1	19	7	16
3	Pontypridd Utd	7	5	1	1	18	12	16
4	Carmarthen	8	4	2	2	19	17	14
5	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	16	10	13
6	Baglan Dragons	9	4	1	4	9	10	13
7	Afan Lido	9	3	2	4	13	15	11
8	Caerau Ely	7	3	1	3	16	17	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	7	2	3	2	14	13	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	8	2	2	4	8	14	8
12	Newport City FC	6	2	1	3	9	5	7
13	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	5	13	3
15	Llanelli Town	8	0	2	6	6	23	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	2	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ynyshir Albions	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Carmarthen	2-2 D	3-2 W
Afan Lido	0-0 D	5-2 W
Caerphilly Athletic	1-2 L	2-2 D
Caerau Ely	1-1 D	2-4 L
Cardiff Draconians	1-0 W	4-4 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ynyshir Albions

LDLDWDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
31/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
18/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
28/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
24/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-1	1-4	3	3	L

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

DDDDDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
31/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	3-1	3-2	5	1	W
28/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	3-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
14/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	2-2	2-4	6	3	L
07/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
31/07	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
18/04	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
04/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	4	4	D
28/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ynyshir Albions vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ynyshir Albions win (40%). Probabilities: Ynyshir Albions 40%, draw 25%, Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Ynyshir Albions vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Ynyshir Albions 1.59 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1.46), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ynyshir Albions vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.