Football · Wales Championship South · 02/10, 20:45

Prediction: Caerau Ely vs Afan Lido

Team pages: Caerau Ely · Afan Lido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Caerau Ely2.4

Afan Lido1.39

1X2

59% 21% 20%

Caerau Ely Draw Afan Lido

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Caerau Ely 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWLLWWW

Afan Lido 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDLWD

Head-to-head

Caerau Ely 3–1–2 Afan Lido (6 last)

Caerau Ely4-1Afan Lido
Afan Lido3-2Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely3-0Afan Lido
Afan Lido2-2Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely3-2Afan Lido
Afan Lido3-1Caerau Ely

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caerau Ely 1531 · Afan Lido 1495

	Caerau Ely	Draw	Afan Lido
Our model	59%	21%	21%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Caerau Ely: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caerau Ely	Afan Lido
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.6	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +25’	1.53	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caerau Ely 3–1–2 Afan Lido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	4-1 HT 1-0	Afan Lido
31/10/25 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	3-2 HT 1-0	Caerau Ely
22/11/24 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	3-0 HT 0-0	Afan Lido
07/09/24 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	2-2 HT 1-1	Caerau Ely
01/04/24 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	3-2 HT 0-2	Afan Lido
08/08/23 Wales Championship South	Afan Lido	3-1 HT 0-1	Caerau Ely

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	7	5	2	0	22	5	17
2	Aberystwyth	7	5	1	1	19	7	16
3	Pontypridd Utd	7	5	1	1	18	12	16
4	Carmarthen	8	4	2	2	19	17	14
5	Caerau Ely	8	4	1	3	19	18	13
6	Treowen Stars	8	4	1	3	17	16	13
7	Baglan Dragons	9	4	1	4	9	10	13
8	Afan Lido	9	3	2	4	13	15	11
9	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	8	2	4	2	15	14	10
10	Ynyshir Albions	7	2	4	1	7	6	10
11	Caerphilly Athletic	8	2	2	4	8	14	8
12	Newport City FC	6	2	1	3	9	5	7
13	Cardiff Draconians	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
14	Pontardawe Town	7	2	0	5	11	14	6
15	Llantwit Major	6	1	1	4	4	15	4
16	Llanelli Town	9	0	2	7	6	25	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caerau Ely	Afan Lido
Cardiff Draconians	3-1 W	1-4 L
Baglan Dragons	1-3 L	1-2 L
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-2 W	2-5 L
Ynyshir Albions	1-1 D	0-0 D
Carmarthen	3-4 L	1-3 L
Pontypridd Utd	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Caerau Ely (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caerau Ely

WDLDWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
11/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
31/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
28/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
21/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	1-0	1-5	6	6	L
14/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
07/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	3-4	5	6	L
18/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
04/04	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

Afan Lido

LLWLWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/09	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
04/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
31/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-5	–	–	L
21/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
14/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	5-0	4	7	W
01/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	1-1	2-5	4	8	L
18/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caerau Ely vs Afan Lido?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caerau Ely win (59%). Probabilities: Caerau Ely 59%, draw 21%, Afan Lido 20%.

How many goals are expected in Caerau Ely vs Afan Lido?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Caerau Ely 2.4 · Afan Lido 1.39), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Caerau Ely vs Afan Lido?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.