Football · Wales Championship South · 26/09, 15:30

Prediction: Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau Ely

Team pages: Cardiff Draconians · Caerau Ely

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Cardiff Draconians1.58

Caerau Ely2.1

1X2

28% 23% 49%

Cardiff Draconians Draw Caerau Ely

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Cardiff Draconians 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLDLWW

Caerau Ely 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Cardiff Draconians 0–2 Caerau Ely (2 last)

Caerau Ely2-1Cardiff Draconians
Cardiff Draconians0-1Caerau Ely

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cardiff Draconians 1513 · Caerau Ely 1513

	Cardiff Draconians	Draw	Caerau Ely
Our model	28%	23%	49%
Market	28%	23%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Caerau Ely: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cardiff Draconians	Caerau Ely
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	2.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.90

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.96 ★
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:03 +1’	3.20	3.90	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +97’	3.19	3.96	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff Draconians 0–0–2 Caerau Ely

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/01/26 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	2-1 HT 1-0	Cardiff Draconians
16/08/25 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	0-1 HT 0-1	Caerau Ely

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	7	5	2	0	22	5	17
2	Aberystwyth	7	5	1	1	19	7	16
3	Pontypridd Utd	7	5	1	1	18	12	16
4	Carmarthen	8	4	2	2	19	17	14
5	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	16	10	13
6	Baglan Dragons	9	4	1	4	9	10	13
7	Afan Lido	9	3	2	4	13	15	11
8	Caerau Ely	7	3	1	3	16	17	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	7	2	3	2	14	13	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	8	2	2	4	8	14	8
12	Newport City FC	6	2	1	3	9	5	7
13	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	5	13	3
15	Llanelli Town	8	0	2	6	6	23	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	2	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cardiff Draconians	Caerau Ely
Baglan Dragons	2-1 W	1-3 L
Llanelli Town	4-2 W	3-0 W
Pontypridd Utd	1-4 L	0-0 D
Ynyshir Albions	0-1 L	1-1 D
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4-4 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Caerau Ely (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cardiff Draconians

WLDDWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-2	5	7	W
15/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
07/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
18/04	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
11/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	3	4	D
28/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
24/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	4-1	4	3	W

Caerau Ely

WWDLDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
31/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
28/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
21/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	1-0	1-5	6	6	L
14/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
07/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	3-4	5	6	L
18/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
04/04	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
28/03	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	4-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau Ely?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caerau Ely win (49%). Probabilities: Cardiff Draconians 28%, draw 23%, Caerau Ely 49%.

How many goals are expected in Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau Ely?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Cardiff Draconians 1.58 · Caerau Ely 2.1), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau Ely?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.