Football · Wales Championship South · 23/10, 20:45

Prediction: Caerau Ely vs Llantwit Major

Team pages: Caerau Ely · Llantwit Major

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

Caerau Ely2.72

Llantwit Major1.09

1X2

71% 17% 12%

Caerau Ely Draw Llantwit Major

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Caerau Ely 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWWWW

Llantwit Major 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWWLD

Head-to-head

Caerau Ely 3–1–2 Llantwit Major (6 last)

Llantwit Major1-4Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely0-0Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major1-0Caerau Ely
Caerau Ely2-4Llantwit Major
Caerau Ely3-2Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major1-4Caerau Ely

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caerau Ely 1570 · Llantwit Major 1440

	Caerau Ely	Draw	Llantwit Major
Our model	71%	17%	12%
Market	71%	17%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caerau Ely (rating 1570 vs 1440).
H2H favours Caerau Ely: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caerau Ely	Llantwit Major
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	0.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.25

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.93

2 (+1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +7’	1.27	5.25	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Caerau Ely 3–1–2 Llantwit Major

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	1-4 HT 0-1	Caerau Ely
12/09/25 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	0-0 HT 0-0	Llantwit Major
05/04/25 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	1-0 HT 1-0	Caerau Ely
07/02/25 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	2-4 HT 1-0	Llantwit Major
02/02/24 Wales Championship South	Caerau Ely	3-2 HT 1-0	Llantwit Major
30/09/23 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	1-4 HT 1-1	Caerau Ely

Standings · Wales Championship South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	10	6	2	2	24	17	20
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Carmarthen	10	4	3	3	22	21	15
8	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	10	3	4	3	20	18	13
9	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
10	Afan Lido	11	3	3	5	18	22	12
11	Caerphilly Athletic	10	3	2	5	12	19	11
12	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
13	Cardiff Draconians	8	2	3	3	11	14	9
14	Newport City FC	8	2	2	4	12	9	8
15	Llantwit Major	9	2	2	5	8	21	8
16	Llanelli Town	11	0	2	9	9	33	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caerau Ely	Llantwit Major
Aberystwyth	1-0 W	1-5 L
Afan Lido	2-0 W	0-5 L
Llanelli Town	3-0 W	2-0 W
Treowen Stars	3-2 W	1-1 D
Baglan Dragons	1-3 L	0-1 L
Pure Swansea	1-5 L	0-3 L
Carmarthen	3-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Caerau Ely (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caerau Ely

LDWLLWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
02/10	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
26/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
11/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
31/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
28/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
21/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	1-0	1-5	6	6	L
14/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-2	3	3	W
07/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	3-4	5	6	L

Llantwit Major

LLLLLDWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
06/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-4	4	5	L
02/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
26/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
15/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
07/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-1	0-5	3	7	L
01/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
18/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caerau Ely vs Llantwit Major?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caerau Ely win (71%). Probabilities: Caerau Ely 71%, draw 17%, Llantwit Major 12%.

How many goals are expected in Caerau Ely vs Llantwit Major?

The model expects 3.82 goals (Caerau Ely 2.72 · Llantwit Major 1.09), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Caerau Ely vs Llantwit Major?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.