Football · Wales Championship South · 23/10, 20:30

Prediction: Newport City FC vs Pontypridd Utd

Team pages: Newport City FC · Pontypridd Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Newport City FC1.67

Pontypridd Utd1.68

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Newport City FC Draw Pontypridd Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Newport City FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLDDL

Pontypridd Utd 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWLWD

Head-to-head

Newport City FC 2–1–1 Pontypridd Utd (4 last)

Newport City FC0-0Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd1-3Newport City FC
Pontypridd Utd0-2Newport City FC
Newport City FC0-1Pontypridd Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newport City FC 1488 · Pontypridd Utd 1535

	Newport City FC	Draw	Pontypridd Utd
Our model	37%	25%	38%
Market	38%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontypridd Utd (rating 1488 vs 1535).
H2H favours Newport City FC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newport City FC	Pontypridd Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	4.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.70

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +12’	2.38	3.70	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport City FC 2–1–1 Pontypridd Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/12/25 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Pontypridd Utd
12/09/25 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	1-3 HT 1-0	Newport City FC
10/01/25 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	0-2 HT 0-0	Newport City FC
27/09/24 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Pontypridd Utd

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	10	6	2	2	24	17	20
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Carmarthen	10	4	3	3	22	21	15
8	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	10	3	4	3	20	18	13
9	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
10	Afan Lido	11	3	3	5	18	22	12
11	Caerphilly Athletic	10	3	2	5	12	19	11
12	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
13	Cardiff Draconians	8	2	3	3	11	14	9
14	Newport City FC	8	2	2	4	12	9	8
15	Llantwit Major	9	2	2	5	8	21	8
16	Llanelli Town	11	0	2	9	9	33	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newport City FC	Pontypridd Utd
Caerphilly Athletic	2-3 L	2-1 W
Cardiff Draconians	1-1 D	4-1 W
Afan Lido	0-0 D	0-1 L
Baglan Dragons	0-1 L	1-1 D
Pontardawe Town	4-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newport City FC

LLWLWLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	0	7	L
03/10	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
25/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
21/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
15/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
08/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
31/07	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-1	5	6	W
18/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-5	3	0	L
03/04	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	4	L

Pontypridd Utd

WWWWDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
06/10	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	2-0	4-1	5	5	W
03/10	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
25/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
28/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	4-4	–	–	D
21/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
07/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	3-2	9	3	W
01/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newport City FC vs Pontypridd Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newport City FC win (38%). Probabilities: Newport City FC 38%, draw 24%, Pontypridd Utd 38%.

How many goals are expected in Newport City FC vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Newport City FC 1.67 · Pontypridd Utd 1.68), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Newport City FC vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.