Football · Wales Championship South · 06/11, 20:30

Prediction: Llanelli Town vs Pontardawe Town

Team pages: Llanelli Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Llanelli Town1.2

Pontardawe Town2.39

1X2

17% 19% 64%

Llanelli Town Draw Pontardawe Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Llanelli Town 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLLL

Pontardawe Town 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWWDW

Head-to-head

Llanelli Town 5–1 Pontardawe Town (6 last)

Llanelli Town5-0Pontardawe Town
Pontardawe Town1-3Llanelli Town
Llanelli Town1-0Pontardawe Town
Llanelli Town0-4Pontardawe Town
Pontardawe Town1-3Llanelli Town
Pontardawe Town0-2Llanelli Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Llanelli Town 1360 · Pontardawe Town 1517

	Llanelli Town	Draw	Pontardawe Town
Our model	17%	20%	63%
Market	18%	18%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontardawe Town (rating 1360 vs 1517).
H2H favours Llanelli Town: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Llanelli Town	Pontardawe Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 3.2	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.6	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/0/80%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.9	3.4 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X5.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:39 +26’	5.00	5.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Llanelli Town 5–0–1 Pontardawe Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/24 Wales Championship South	Llanelli Town	5-0 HT 3-0	Pontardawe Town
12/08/23 Wales Championship South	Pontardawe Town	1-3 HT 1-2	Llanelli Town
21/07/23 Wales League Cup	Llanelli Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Pontardawe Town
07/04/23 Wales Championship South	Llanelli Town	0-4 HT 0-3	Pontardawe Town
18/03/23 Wales Championship South	Pontardawe Town	1-3 HT 0-1	Llanelli Town
31/07/19 Club Friendly List	Pontardawe Town	0-2 HT 0-2	Llanelli Town

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pontypridd Utd	12	7	3	2	32	21	24
2	Aberystwyth	10	7	1	2	24	10	22
3	Caerau Ely	12	7	1	4	23	20	22
4	Pure Swansea	10	6	3	1	32	15	21
5	Ynyshir Albions	10	5	4	1	19	11	19
6	Baglan Dragons	12	5	2	5	12	13	17
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	12	4	4	4	24	21	16
8	Treowen Stars	11	5	1	5	20	21	16
9	Carmarthen	12	4	3	5	24	26	15
10	Afan Lido	13	4	3	6	21	24	15
11	Caerphilly Athletic	12	4	2	6	15	21	14
12	Pontardawe Town	10	4	1	5	17	18	13
13	Newport City FC	10	3	3	4	19	15	12
14	Cardiff Draconians	10	3	3	4	14	17	12
15	Llantwit Major	11	3	2	6	12	24	11
16	Llanelli Town	13	0	2	11	9	40	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Llanelli Town	Pontardawe Town
Pontypridd Utd	0-4 L	2-3 L
Afan Lido	0-3 L	0-1 L
Llantwit Major	0-2 L	1-1 D
Treowen Stars	0-2 L	6-1 W
Aberystwyth	0-4 L	0-1 L
Carmarthen	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pontardawe Town (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Llanelli Town

LDLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
23/10	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
10/10	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-3	2-6	–	–	L
02/10	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-0	1-2	0	5	L
26/09	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
04/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
31/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
28/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-3	2-4	5	7	L

Pontardawe Town

WLLLLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
10/10	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
03/10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-1	3-2	9	2	W
26/09	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	5-1	6-1	–	–	W
11/09	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	0-4	3	1	L
28/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
21/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
15/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
07/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	2-1	2-3	9	3	L
01/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	1-0	3-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Llanelli Town vs Pontardawe Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pontardawe Town win (64%). Probabilities: Llanelli Town 17%, draw 19%, Pontardawe Town 64%.

How many goals are expected in Llanelli Town vs Pontardawe Town?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Llanelli Town 1.2 · Pontardawe Town 2.39), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Llanelli Town vs Pontardawe Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.