Football · Wales Championship South · 14/08, 20:30
Prediction: Carmarthen vs Afan Lido
Team pages: Carmarthen · Afan Lido
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Carmarthen2.16
Afan Lido1.4
1X2
Carmarthen
Draw
Afan Lido
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Carmarthen
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Afan Lido
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carmarthen
2–3–1
Afan Lido
(6 last)
- Afan Lido0-1Carmarthen
- Carmarthen1-0Afan Lido
- Carmarthen2-2Afan Lido
- Afan Lido3-3Carmarthen
- Afan Lido4-1Carmarthen
- Carmarthen3-3Afan Lido
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carmarthen 1527 · Afan Lido 1484
| Carmarthen | Draw | Afan Lido | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carmarthen (rating 1527 vs 1484).
- H2H favours Carmarthen: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carmarthen | Afan Lido | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.9 | 2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.1 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carmarthen 2–3–1 Afan Lido
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/26 Wales Championship South | Afan Lido | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Carmarthen |
| 24/10/25 Wales Championship South | Carmarthen | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Afan Lido |
| 01/03/25 Wales Championship South | Carmarthen | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Afan Lido |
| 27/09/24 Wales Championship South | Afan Lido | 3-3 HT 0-3 | Carmarthen |
| 02/02/24 Wales Championship South | Afan Lido | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Carmarthen |
| 30/09/23 Wales Championship South | Carmarthen | 3-3 HT 1-0 | Afan Lido |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Carmarthen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Utd | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Ynyshir Albions | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Afan Lido | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Newport City FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Pontardawe Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Caerau Ely | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Llanelli Town | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Caerphilly Athletic | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carmarthen | Afan Lido |
|---|---|---|
| Caerau Ely | 4-3 W | 1-4 L |
| Cardiff MU | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Treowen Stars | 1-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Cardiff Draconians | 3-2 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carmarthen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 4-3 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 14/07 | Briton Ferry UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 07/07 | Cardiff MU UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 03/07 | Trefelin BGC UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/04 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 21/03 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 14/03 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
3-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
Afan Lido
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 01/08 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 2-5 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/07 | Cardiff MU UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/03 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 20/03 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 13/03 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 07/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carmarthen vs Afan Lido?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carmarthen win (54%). Probabilities: Carmarthen 54%, draw 22%, Afan Lido 24%.
How many goals are expected in Carmarthen vs Afan Lido?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Carmarthen 2.16 · Afan Lido 1.4), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Carmarthen vs Afan Lido?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.