Football · Wales Championship South · 25/09, 20:30

Prediction: Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen

Team pages: Baglan Dragons · Carmarthen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Baglan Dragons1.44

Carmarthen1.72

1X2

32% 25% 44%

Baglan Dragons Draw Carmarthen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Baglan Dragons 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWWLWL

Carmarthen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLDLD

Head-to-head

Baglan Dragons 0–4–2 Carmarthen (6 last)

Baglan Dragons0-7Carmarthen
Carmarthen0-0Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons1-1Carmarthen
Carmarthen3-2Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons2-2Carmarthen
Carmarthen0-0Baglan Dragons

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baglan Dragons 1478 · Carmarthen 1486

	Baglan Dragons	Draw	Carmarthen
Our model	31%	25%	43%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carmarthen: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baglan Dragons	Carmarthen
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	2.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.6	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.75

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.80▼	Pinn 3.07 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.00 → 2.05▲	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +7’	2.88	3.75	2.00
06:05 +4’	2.80▼	3.75	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +94’	3.08	3.49	2.02
05:14 +55’	3.07▼	3.56▲	2.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baglan Dragons 0–4–2 Carmarthen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	0-7 HT 0-2	Carmarthen
25/08/25 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	0-0 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons
05/04/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	1-1 HT 0-1	Carmarthen
09/08/24 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	3-2 HT 1-0	Baglan Dragons
01/04/24 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	2-2 HT 2-1	Carmarthen
08/08/23 Wales Championship South	Carmarthen	0-0 HT 0-0	Baglan Dragons

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	6	5	1	0	22	5	16
2	Aberystwyth	6	5	0	1	19	7	15
3	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	16	10	13
4	Pontypridd Utd	6	4	1	1	16	11	13
5	Baglan Dragons	8	4	1	3	8	8	13
6	Carmarthen	7	3	2	2	17	16	11
7	Caerau Ely	7	3	1	3	16	17	10
8	Afan Lido	8	3	1	4	13	15	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	7	2	3	2	14	13	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	7	2	2	3	7	12	8
12	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
13	Newport City FC	5	2	0	3	9	5	6
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	5	13	3
15	Llanelli Town	8	0	2	6	6	23	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	2	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baglan Dragons	Carmarthen
Afan Lido	2-1 W	3-1 W
Caerau Ely	3-1 W	4-3 W
Newport City FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	0-0 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Baglan Dragons (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baglan Dragons

LDDLWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
31/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
15/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
31/07	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
18/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
03/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	1	1	L

Carmarthen

WLLWWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
31/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-3	2-3	6	1	L
28/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-0	2-4	0	0	L
14/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	4-3	7	6	W
18/04	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-4	8	5	L
04/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
28/03	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	2-0	7-0	8	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Carmarthen win (44%). Probabilities: Baglan Dragons 32%, draw 25%, Carmarthen 44%.

How many goals are expected in Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Baglan Dragons 1.44 · Carmarthen 1.72), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.