Prediction: Carmarthen vs Caerphilly Athletic
Team pages: Carmarthen
| Carmarthen | Draw | Caerphilly Athletic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carmarthen | Caerphilly Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 2.1 | 1.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 3.8 | 2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Utd | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 20 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 16 |
| 7 | Carmarthen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 21 | 15 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 13 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 13 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 12 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 8 |
| 16 | Llanelli Town | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carmarthen | Caerphilly Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Draconians | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Baglan Dragons | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Ynyshir Albions | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Treowen Stars | 2-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Newport City FC | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Caerphilly Athletic (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carmarthen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 02/10 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/09 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 31/08 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 28/08 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 22/08 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 14/08 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 4-3 | 7 | 6 | W |
Caerphilly Athletic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Pure Swansea Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/09 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 31/08 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/08 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carmarthen vs Caerphilly Athletic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carmarthen win (45%). Probabilities: Carmarthen 45%, draw 23%, Caerphilly Athletic 31%.
How many goals are expected in Carmarthen vs Caerphilly Athletic?
The model expects 3.71 goals (Carmarthen 2.03 · Caerphilly Athletic 1.68), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Carmarthen vs Caerphilly Athletic?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.