Football · Austria Regionalliga Ost · 18/09, 19:30

Prediction: FCM Traiskirchen vs FC Marchfeld Donauauen

Team pages: FCM Traiskirchen · FC Marchfeld Donauauen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

FCM Traiskirchen1.85

FC Marchfeld Donauauen2.2

1X2

32% 23% 45%

FCM Traiskirchen Draw FC Marchfeld Donauauen

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FCM Traiskirchen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWWDW

FC Marchfeld Donauauen 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

FCM Traiskirchen 4–1–1 FC Marchfeld Donauauen (6 last)

FC Marchfeld Donauauen1-3FCM Traiskirchen
FCM Traiskirchen1-1FC Marchfeld Donauauen
FCM Traiskirchen1-0FC Marchfeld Donauauen
FC Marchfeld Donauauen2-3FCM Traiskirchen
FCM Traiskirchen1-2FC Marchfeld Donauauen
FC Marchfeld Donauauen0-1FCM Traiskirchen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FCM Traiskirchen 1508 · FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1568

	FCM Traiskirchen	Draw	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
Our model	32%	22%	46%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Marchfeld Donauauen (rating 1508 vs 1568).
H2H favours FCM Traiskirchen: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FCM Traiskirchen	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.7	2.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.80

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:39 +4’	2.88	3.80	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FCM Traiskirchen 4–1–1 FC Marchfeld Donauauen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	1-3 HT 0-2	FCM Traiskirchen
24/10/25 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FCM Traiskirchen	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
16/05/25 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FCM Traiskirchen	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
18/10/24 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	2-3 HT 0-2	FCM Traiskirchen
15/03/24 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FCM Traiskirchen	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
18/08/23 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	0-1 HT 0-1	FCM Traiskirchen

Standings · Austria Regionalliga Ost

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	7	6	0	1	22	7	18
2	Wiener Sportclub	7	5	1	1	17	3	16
3	Oberwart	7	4	0	3	14	11	12
4	FCM Traiskirchen	6	3	2	1	16	13	11
5	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth	7	3	2	2	10	13	11
6	Parndorf	7	3	2	2	13	10	11
7	SC Wiener Viktoria	7	3	1	3	11	9	10
8	SR Fach-Donaufeld	7	3	1	3	5	8	10
9	SV Donau	7	2	3	2	11	13	9
10	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	7	3	0	4	9	8	9
11	Favoritner AC	7	3	0	4	6	8	9
12	SV Horn	7	2	2	3	7	7	8
13	SV Leobendorf	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
14	SV Gloggnitz	7	2	2	3	10	12	8
15	Kremser SC	6	1	2	3	7	10	5
16	SV Wienerberg	7	0	0	7	5	28	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FCM Traiskirchen	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
Parndorf	3-1 W	4-1 W
SV Donau	1-1 D	4-1 W
SV Leobendorf	5-4 W	0-1 L
SV Wienerberg	4-3 W	5-0 W
SR Fach-Donaufeld	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Marchfeld Donauauen (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FCM Traiskirchen

WLLLDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	3-1	3-1	3	6	W
28/08	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
21/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	3-2	5-4	3	10	W
15/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-2	4-3	13	2	W
07/08	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
31/07	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	3-3	15	4	D
03/06	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-3	1-5	10	4	L
28/05	Neusiedl Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-2	2-4	12	3	L
22/05	Oberwart Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-2	0-3	7	4	L
15/05	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	3-2	2	10	W

FC Marchfeld Donauauen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	SV Horn Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
04/09	SV Gloggnitz Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
28/08	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
21/08	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-1	4	8	W
15/08	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	4-1	7	6	W
07/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
01/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	4-0	5-0	2	3	W
03/06	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/05	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
22/05	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	2-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FCM Traiskirchen vs FC Marchfeld Donauauen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Marchfeld Donauauen win (45%). Probabilities: FCM Traiskirchen 32%, draw 23%, FC Marchfeld Donauauen 45%.

How many goals are expected in FCM Traiskirchen vs FC Marchfeld Donauauen?

The model expects 4.05 goals (FCM Traiskirchen 1.85 · FC Marchfeld Donauauen 2.2), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FCM Traiskirchen vs FC Marchfeld Donauauen?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.