Football · Austria Regionalliga Ost · 25/09, 19:00

Prediction: FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs Oberwart

Team pages: FC Marchfeld Donauauen · Oberwart

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

FC Marchfeld Donauauen2.51

Oberwart1.6

1X2

56% 21% 23%

FC Marchfeld Donauauen Draw Oberwart

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Marchfeld Donauauen 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWWWW

Oberwart 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWLLW

Head-to-head

FC Marchfeld Donauauen 2–1–3 Oberwart (6 last)

FC Marchfeld Donauauen1-2Oberwart
Oberwart1-0FC Marchfeld Donauauen
FC Marchfeld Donauauen2-0Oberwart
Oberwart1-1FC Marchfeld Donauauen
Oberwart2-0FC Marchfeld Donauauen
FC Marchfeld Donauauen2-1Oberwart

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1578 · Oberwart 1546

	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	Draw	Oberwart
Our model	57%	20%	23%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Oberwart: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	Oberwart
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.3	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.10

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.60▼	Bet365 1.60
X	3.90 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	3.25 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +14’	1.80	3.90	3.25
04:30 +37’	1.60▼	4.10▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Marchfeld Donauauen 2–1–3 Oberwart

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	1-2 HT 0-2	Oberwart
29/08/25 Austria Regionalliga Ost	Oberwart	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
28/03/25 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	2-0 HT 1-0	Oberwart
30/08/24 Austria Regionalliga Ost	Oberwart	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
17/05/24 Austria Regionalliga Ost	Oberwart	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
20/10/23 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	2-1 HT 2-0	Oberwart

Standings · Austria Regionalliga Ost

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	8	7	0	1	25	8	21
2	Wiener Sportclub	8	5	1	2	18	5	16
3	Oberwart	8	5	0	3	17	12	15
4	FCM Traiskirchen	8	4	2	2	19	16	14
5	SC Wiener Viktoria	8	4	1	3	14	9	13
6	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth	8	3	3	2	12	15	12
7	Parndorf	8	3	2	3	14	13	11
8	SR Fach-Donaufeld	8	3	2	3	7	10	11
9	SV Leobendorf	8	3	2	3	10	12	11
10	SV Horn	8	3	2	3	10	8	11
11	SV Donau	8	2	4	2	13	15	10
12	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	8	3	1	4	11	10	10
13	Favoritner AC	8	3	0	5	6	11	9
14	SV Gloggnitz	8	2	2	4	11	15	8
15	Kremser SC	8	2	2	4	10	12	8
16	SV Wienerberg	8	0	0	8	5	31	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	Oberwart
Parndorf	4-1 W	3-1 W
Kremser SC	3-1 W	1-3 L
SV Donau	4-1 W	0-2 L
SV Leobendorf	0-1 L	1-0 W
SV Wienerberg	5-0 W	5-2 W
SR Fach-Donaufeld	2-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Marchfeld Donauauen (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Marchfeld Donauauen

LWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FCM Traiskirchen Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
11/09	SV Horn Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
04/09	SV Gloggnitz Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
28/08	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
21/08	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-1	4	8	W
15/08	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	4-1	7	6	W
07/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
01/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	4-0	5-0	2	3	W
03/06	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/05	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	1-2	10	4	L

Oberwart

DWWLWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
11/09	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-3	1-3	4	5	L
04/09	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
29/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
21/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	5-2	4	4	W
14/08	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	4-1	3	4	W
07/08	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-2	12	5	L
01/08	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-1	11	6	W
05/06	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	3-1	5-2	7	2	W
30/05	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	2-2	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs Oberwart?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Marchfeld Donauauen win (56%). Probabilities: FC Marchfeld Donauauen 56%, draw 21%, Oberwart 23%.

How many goals are expected in FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs Oberwart?

The model expects 4.11 goals (FC Marchfeld Donauauen 2.51 · Oberwart 1.6), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs Oberwart?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.