Football · Austria Regionalliga Ost · 04/09, 19:30

Prediction: Oberwart vs SV Donau

Team pages: Oberwart · SV Donau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.34Total

Oberwart3.06

SV Donau1.29

1X2

72% 16% 12%

Oberwart Draw SV Donau

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Oberwart 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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SV Donau 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Oberwart 0–1–1 SV Donau (2 last)

Oberwart2-2SV Donau
SV Donau1-0Oberwart

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oberwart 1585 · SV Donau 1415

	Oberwart	Draw	SV Donau
Our model	72%	15%	12%
Market	72%	16%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 4.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oberwart (rating 1585 vs 1415).
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oberwart	SV Donau
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.1	1.1 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.5	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.98

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +2’	1.25	5.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oberwart 0–1–1 SV Donau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Austria Regionalliga Ost	Oberwart	2-2 HT 1-1	SV Donau
05/09/25 Austria Regionalliga Ost	SV Donau	1-0 HT 0-0	Oberwart

Standings · Austria Regionalliga Ost

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	5	4	0	1	16	4	12
2	Wiener Sportclub	5	4	0	1	11	3	12
3	Oberwart	5	4	0	1	13	6	12
4	Parndorf	6	3	2	1	12	7	11
5	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
6	SR Fach-Donaufeld	5	3	0	2	5	7	9
7	SV Horn	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
8	FCM Traiskirchen	5	2	2	1	13	12	8
9	SV Gloggnitz	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
10	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	5	2	0	3	5	6	6
11	Favoritner AC	5	2	0	3	3	4	6
12	SV Leobendorf	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
13	SC Wiener Viktoria	5	1	1	3	5	8	4
14	SV Donau	5	0	3	2	5	13	3
15	Kremser SC	5	0	2	3	4	9	2
16	SV Wienerberg	5	0	0	5	5	19	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oberwart	SV Donau
SC Wiener Viktoria	2-1 W	0-2 L
Kremser SC	5-2 W	1-1 D
FCM Traiskirchen	3-0 W	1-1 D
Favoritner AC	4-1 W	1-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Oberwart (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oberwart

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
21/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	5-2	4	4	W
14/08	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	4-1	3	4	W
07/08	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-2	12	5	L
01/08	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-1	11	6	W
05/06	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	3-1	5-2	7	2	W
30/05	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
22/05	FCM Traiskirchen Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	3-0	0	4	W
15/05	Wiener Sportclub Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
08/05	Favoritner AC Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	4-1	5	1	W

SV Donau

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FCM Traiskirchen Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
21/08	SV Horn Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	1-1	5	8	D
15/08	FC Marchfeld Donauauen Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-2	1-4	3	6	L
07/08	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-3	1-6	2	4	L
31/07	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
03/06	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
29/05	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-2	1-5	2	7	L
22/05	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
15/05	FCM Traiskirchen Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-3	9	10	L
01/05	Favoritner AC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-3	1-5	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oberwart vs SV Donau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oberwart win (72%). Probabilities: Oberwart 72%, draw 16%, SV Donau 12%.

How many goals are expected in Oberwart vs SV Donau?

The model expects 4.34 goals (Oberwart 3.06 · SV Donau 1.29), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Oberwart vs SV Donau?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.