Football · Austria Regionalliga Ost · 11/09, 19:00

Prediction: FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs SV Horn

Team pages: FC Marchfeld Donauauen · SV Horn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

FC Marchfeld Donauauen1.97

SV Horn1.01

1X2

59% 22% 18%

FC Marchfeld Donauauen Draw SV Horn

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Marchfeld Donauauen 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWWWW

SV Horn 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDDWL

Head-to-head

FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1–2–2 SV Horn (5 last)

SV Horn2-2FC Marchfeld Donauauen
FC Marchfeld Donauauen4-2SV Horn
FC Marchfeld Donauauen3-3SV Horn
SV Horn2-1FC Marchfeld Donauauen
FC Marchfeld Donauauen1-2SV Horn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1596 · SV Horn 1490

	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	Draw	SV Horn
Our model	59%	24%	18%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Marchfeld Donauauen (rating 1596 vs 1490).
H2H favours SV Horn: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	SV Horn
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.9	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.3	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +17’	1.50	4.20	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1–2–2 SV Horn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Austria Regionalliga Ost	SV Horn	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
01/08/25 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	4-2 HT 3-1	SV Horn
05/09/24 Europe Friendlies	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	3-3 HT 2-2	SV Horn
30/06/23 Europe Friendlies	SV Horn	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
20/01/23 Europe Friendlies	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	1-2 HT 0-1	SV Horn

Standings · Austria Regionalliga Ost

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	6	5	0	1	19	6	15
2	Wiener Sportclub	6	4	1	1	11	3	13
3	Oberwart	6	4	0	2	13	8	12
4	Parndorf	6	3	2	1	12	7	11
5	SR Fach-Donaufeld	6	3	1	2	5	7	10
6	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth	6	3	1	2	9	12	10
7	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	6	3	0	3	8	6	9
8	Favoritner AC	6	3	0	3	6	4	9
9	SV Horn	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
10	FCM Traiskirchen	5	2	2	1	13	12	8
11	SV Gloggnitz	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
12	SC Wiener Viktoria	6	2	1	3	10	9	7
13	SV Donau	6	1	3	2	7	13	6
14	SV Leobendorf	6	1	2	3	6	10	5
15	Kremser SC	5	0	2	3	4	9	2
16	SV Wienerberg	6	0	0	6	5	22	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	SV Horn
Parndorf	4-1 W	0-1 L
Kremser SC	3-1 W	1-0 W
SV Donau	4-1 W	1-1 D
SV Leobendorf	0-1 L	0-0 D
SV Wienerberg	5-0 W	3-0 W
SR Fach-Donaufeld	2-0 W	1-2 L
SC Wiener Viktoria	3-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Marchfeld Donauauen (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Marchfeld Donauauen

WWLWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	SV Gloggnitz Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
28/08	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
21/08	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-1	4	8	W
15/08	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	4-1	7	6	W
07/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
01/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	4-0	5-0	2	3	W
03/06	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/05	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
22/05	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
16/05	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-0	6	3	W

SV Horn

LWLWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
28/08	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
21/08	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
14/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
07/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
31/07	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/06	TWL Elektra Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	5-1	6	3	W
22/05	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	1-2	12	4	L
09/05	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
02/05	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-3	1-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs SV Horn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Marchfeld Donauauen win (59%). Probabilities: FC Marchfeld Donauauen 59%, draw 22%, SV Horn 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs SV Horn?

The model expects 2.97 goals (FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1.97 · SV Horn 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Marchfeld Donauauen vs SV Horn?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.