Football · France Ligue 1 · 22/08, 20:45
Prediction: Troyes vs Paris FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Troyes1.4
Paris FC1.51
1X2
Troyes
Draw
Paris FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Troyes
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Paris FC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Troyes
1–2–3
Paris FC
(6 last)
- Paris FC1-0Troyes
- Troyes0-3Paris FC
- Troyes1-2Paris FC
- Paris FC2-2Troyes
- Paris FC1-1Troyes
- Troyes2-1Paris FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Troyes 1560 · Paris FC 1513
| Troyes | Draw | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Troyes (rating 1560 vs 1513).
- H2H favours Paris FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Troyes | Paris FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.6 | 1.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 5.7 | 2.3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Troyes 1–2–3 Paris FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/25 France Ligue 2 | Paris FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Troyes |
| 21/10/24 France Ligue 2 | Troyes | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Paris FC |
| 13/04/24 France Ligue 2 | Troyes | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Paris FC |
| 28/10/23 France Ligue 2 | Paris FC | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Troyes |
| 10/04/21 France Ligue 2 | Paris FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Troyes |
| 05/12/20 France Ligue 2 | Troyes | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Paris FC |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auxerre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Angers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Troyes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lorient | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Le Mans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Marseille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Paris FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PSG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rennes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Strasbourg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Toulouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Troyes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Panetolikos Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Auxerre Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 25/07 | Grenoble Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Red Star FC 93 Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Nancy Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Grenoble France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Laval France Ligue 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | St Etienne France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Boulogne France Ligue 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
Paris FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Angers Elite Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Mainz Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | VfB Stuttgart Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/07 | Reims Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | PSG France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 19/04 | Metz France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
3-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Troyes vs Paris FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Paris FC win (38%). Probabilities: Troyes 34%, draw 28%, Paris FC 38%.
How many goals are expected in Troyes vs Paris FC?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Troyes 1.4 · Paris FC 1.51), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Troyes vs Paris FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.