Football · France Ligue 1 · 30/08, 15:00

Prediction: Paris FC vs Nice

Team pages: Paris FC · Nice

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.26Total
Paris FC1.27
Nice0.99
1X2
42% 29% 28%
Paris FC Draw Nice
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Paris FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
DWDWWLWLWD
Nice 1-6-3 (W-D-L)
WLLDDDDLDD
Head-to-head
Paris FC 1–1–0 Nice (2 last)
  • Paris FC1-0Nice
  • Nice1-1Paris FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paris FC 1540 · Nice 1506
Paris FCDrawNice
Our model42%31%27%
Market43%28%29%
Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Paris FCNice
Goals for / against (FT)1.8 / 0.90.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 0.30.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/60/10%0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2.4 / 4.62.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.8 / 0.22.6 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Paris FC 110 Nice

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DateHomeScoreAway
01/03/26
France Ligue 1
Paris FC1-0
HT 1-0
Nice
28/09/25
France Ligue 1
Nice1-1
HT 1-0
Paris FC

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Marseille 1100 403
2 Lens 1100 523
3 Lille 1100 203
3 Lyon 1100 203
5 Monaco 1100 103
6 Le Mans 1010 221
6 PSG 1010 221
6 Brest 1010 221
6 Rennes 1010 221
10 Troyes 1010 001
10 Lorient 1010 001
10 Nice 1010 001
10 Paris FC 1010 001
14 Le Havre 1001 010
15 Angers 1001 020
15 Toulouse 1001 020
17 Auxerre 1001 250
18 Strasbourg 1001 040

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentParis FCNice
PSG 2-1 W 0-4 L
Lille 0-1 L 0-0 D
Metz 3-1 W 0-0 D
Lorient 1-1 D 0-0 D
Le Havre 3-2 W 1-1 D
Strasbourg 0-0 D 1-3 L
Record vs common 3 W 2 D 1 L 0 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Paris FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paris FC

DWDWWLWLWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
22/08 Troyes
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 23 D
17/05 PSG
France Ligue 1
0-0 2-1 32 W
10/05 Rennes
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-2 22 L
03/05 Brest
France Ligue 1
2-0 4-0 73 W
26/04 Lille
France Ligue 1
0-1 0-1 79 L
19/04 Metz
France Ligue 1
1-1 3-1 54 W
10/04 Monaco
France Ligue 1
3-1 4-1 11 W
05/04 Lorient
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-1 63 D
22/03 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
2-0 3-2 92 W
15/03 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 41 D

Nice

WLLDDDDLDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
22/08 Lorient
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 91 D
17/05 Metz
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 103 D
10/05 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
1-1 1-2 11 L
02/05 Lens
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-1 76 D
26/04 Marseille
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-1 15 D
18/04 Lille
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 33 D
12/04 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
0-1 1-1 52 D
04/04 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
0-3 1-3 101 L
21/03 PSG
France Ligue 1
0-1 0-4 22 L
14/03 Angers
France Ligue 1
0-0 2-0 64 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paris FC vs Nice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paris FC win (42%). Probabilities: Paris FC 42%, draw 29%, Nice 28%.

How many goals are expected in Paris FC vs Nice?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Paris FC 1.27 · Nice 0.99), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Nice?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.