Prediction: Monaco vs Marseille
Team pages: Monaco · Marseille
- Monaco2-1Marseille
- Marseille1-0Monaco
- Monaco3-0Marseille
- Marseille2-1Monaco
- Marseille2-2Monaco
- Monaco3-2Marseille
| Monaco | Draw | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Monaco: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monaco | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.7 | 2.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monaco 3–1–2 Marseille
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 France Ligue 1 | Monaco | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Marseille |
| 14/12/25 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Monaco |
| 12/04/25 France Ligue 1 | Monaco | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Marseille |
| 01/12/24 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Monaco |
| 27/01/24 France Ligue 1 | Marseille | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Monaco |
| 30/09/23 France Ligue 1 | Monaco | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Marseille |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | PSG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Brest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Angers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monaco | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Strasbourg | 4-5 L | 4-0 W |
| Lille | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Metz | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Auxerre | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Marseille (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monaco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
3-1 | 4-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Metz France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 10/04 | Paris FC France Ligue 1 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 05/04 | Marseille France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/03 | Brest France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Marseille
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Rennes France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Le Havre France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Nantes France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Nice France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Lorient France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 10/04 | Metz France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 22/03 | Lille France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 13/03 | Auxerre France Ligue 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monaco vs Marseille?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monaco win (41%). Probabilities: Monaco 41%, draw 26%, Marseille 34%.
How many goals are expected in Monaco vs Marseille?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Monaco 1.55 · Marseille 1.39), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Marseille?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.