Football · France Ligue 1 · 22/08, 20:45
Prediction: Toulouse vs Lyon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
Toulouse1.52
Lyon1.79
1X2
Toulouse
Draw
Lyon
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Toulouse
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Lyon
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toulouse
2–1–3
Lyon
(6 last)
- Toulouse2-1Lyon
- Lyon1-2Toulouse
- Lyon0-0Toulouse
- Toulouse1-2Lyon
- Toulouse2-3Lyon
- Lyon3-0Toulouse
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toulouse 1510 · Lyon 1501
| Toulouse | Draw | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Lyon: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toulouse | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.1 | 2.4 / 7.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toulouse 2–1–3 Lyon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Lyon |
| 05/10/25 France Ligue 1 | Lyon | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Toulouse |
| 18/01/25 France Ligue 1 | Lyon | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Toulouse |
| 29/09/24 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Lyon |
| 15/03/24 France Ligue 1 | Toulouse | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Lyon |
| 10/12/23 France Ligue 1 | Lyon | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Toulouse |
Standings · France Ligue 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auxerre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Angers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Troyes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lorient | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Le Havre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Le Mans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Marseille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Paris FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PSG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rennes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Strasbourg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Toulouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toulouse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Hamburg Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Elche Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 05/08 | Al Ain SCC World Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 31/07 | Real Sociedad Elite Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Rodez Aveyron Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Lyon France Ligue 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Strasbourg France Ligue 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Monaco France Ligue 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/04 | Lens France Cup |
1-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/04 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
2-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
Lyon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Sparta Prague UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 04/08 | Sparta Prague UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 29/07 | Real Betis Elite Club Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 24/07 | Wolfsburg Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Slavia Prague Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/07 | Servette Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | St Gallen Europe Friendlies |
4-2 | 6-3 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 08/07 | Maconnais Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Lens France Ligue 1 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 20 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Toulouse France Ligue 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toulouse vs Lyon?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lyon win (43%). Probabilities: Toulouse 31%, draw 26%, Lyon 43%.
How many goals are expected in Toulouse vs Lyon?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Toulouse 1.52 · Lyon 1.79), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lyon?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.