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Football · France Ligue 1 · 22/08, 20:45

Prediction: Nice vs Lorient

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Nice1.64
Lorient1.28
1X2
44% 27% 29%
Nice Draw Lorient
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nice 3-4-3 (W-D-L)
LDLDWWWLDD
Lorient 5-1-4 (W-D-L)
LDWLWWWWLL
Head-to-head
Nice 1–4–1 Lorient (6 last)
  • Lorient0-0Nice
  • Nice3-3Lorient
  • Lorient3-1Nice
  • Nice3-0Lorient
  • Lorient1-1Nice
  • Nice1-1Lorient
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nice 1516 · Lorient 1522
NiceDrawLorient
Our model45%27%29%
Market44%27%29%
Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

NiceLorient
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 0.82 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.40.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/60/20%60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.8 / 3.82 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)1.3 / 02.5 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nice 1–4–1 Lorient

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DateHomeScoreAway
04/03/26
France Cup
Lorient0-0
HT 0-0
Nice
22/02/26
France Ligue 1
Nice3-3
HT 2-1
Lorient
30/11/25
France Ligue 1
Lorient3-1
HT 2-1
Nice
19/04/24
France Ligue 1
Nice3-0
HT 1-0
Lorient
20/08/23
France Ligue 1
Lorient1-1
HT 0-0
Nice
19/03/23
France Ligue 1
Nice1-1
HT 0-1
Lorient

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#Team PWL GFGAPts
1 Auxerre 000 000
1 Angers 000 000
1 Monaco 000 000
1 Troyes 000 000
1 Lorient 000 000
1 Le Havre 000 000
1 Le Mans 000 000
1 Lille 000 000
1 Nice 000 000
1 Lyon 000 000
1 Marseille 000 000
1 Paris FC 000 000
1 PSG 000 000
1 Lens 000 000
1 Brest 000 000
1 Rennes 000 000
1 Strasbourg 000 000
1 Toulouse 000 000

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nice

LDLDWWWLDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
15/08 Hull
Elite Club Friendlies
 0-0 0-0 40 D
08/08 Cagliari
Elite Club Friendlies
 0-0 0-0 11 D
31/07 Juventus
Elite Club Friendlies
 0-1 0-2 10 L
25/07 Marseille
Elite Club Friendlies
 2-0 3-0 00 W
18/07 Nimes
Europe Friendlies
 2-0 4-0 21 W
29/05 St Etienne
France Ligue 1 Play-Offs
 0-0 4-1 62 W
26/05 St Etienne
France Ligue 1 Play-Offs
 0-0 0-0 61 D
22/05 Lens
France Cup
 1-2 1-3 74 L
17/05 Metz
France Ligue 1
 0-0 0-0 103 D
10/05 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
 1-1 1-2 11 L

Lorient

LDWLWWWWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
15/08 Elversberg
Elite Club Friendlies
 1-1 1-4 21 L
08/08 Angers
Elite Club Friendlies
 0-2 1-2 32 L
04/08 UNFP
Club Friendly List
 2-0 5-1 –– W
25/07 Guingamp
Club Friendly List
 1-0 2-0 –– W
18/07 Nantes
Europe Friendlies
 1-0 1-0 14 W
11/07 Concarneau
Europe Friendlies
 1-0 2-1 21 W
17/05 Le Havre
France Ligue 1
 0-1 0-2 53 L
10/05 Metz
France Ligue 1
 1-0 4-0 44 W
02/05 PSG
France Ligue 1
 1-1 2-2 22 D
26/04 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
 1-0 2-3 93 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nice vs Lorient?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nice win (44%). Probabilities: Nice 44%, draw 27%, Lorient 29%.

How many goals are expected in Nice vs Lorient?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Nice 1.64 · Lorient 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nice vs Lorient?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.